The 2024 Presidential Election

[92tide]

Biden: Trump's an insurrectionist but courts can decide his ballot fate

“It’s self-evident. You saw it all. Now whether the 14th Amendment applies, I’ll let the court make that decision,” the president said.

www.politico.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Or until real wages catch up to the point that the basket of groceries in 2024 cost the same percentage of income it did a few years ago.

Actually real wages now are outpacing inflation. I don't think that's enough to quell the disquiet...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Actually real wages now are outpacing inflation. I don't think that's enough to quell the disquiet...

But wages trailed inflation by ~3 points for almost two years, having only surpassed the inflation rate by ~2 points since March of this year. It's going to take a while for that to make up for trailing goods over that almost two year span. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for food are 20.78% higher in 2023 versus 2020.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

But wages trailed inflation by ~3 points for almost two years, having only surpassed the inflation rate by ~2 points since March of this year. It's going to take a while for that to make up for trailing goods over that almost two year span. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, prices for food are 20.78% higher in 2023 versus 2020.

The answer is, of course, that it'll never catch up. Perception rules reality. Unless those prices actually decrease - unlikely, except for gasoline, the average consumer will still resent the economy and Biden will get blamed...

 

[crimsonaudio]

The answer is, of course, that it'll never catch up. Perception rules reality. Unless those prices actually decrease - unlikely, except for gasoline, the average consumer will still resent the economy and Biden will get blamed...

I mean, if wages stayed above inflation for an extended period the relative prices would normalize, of course. But agreed, the perception for the near future isn't good for Biden.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I mean, if wages stayed above inflation for an extended period the relative prices would normalize, of course. But agreed, the perception for the near future isn't good for Biden.

I'll agree that, if wages continue to rise ahead of inflation, people will forget the good old prices. But, you're right. That's not happening between now and next November. I'm convinced that, between that and Biden's age (although Trump shows more mental deterioration than Biden by far), are what are affecting Biden's ratings...

 

[JDCrimson]

My dad mentions that back in 1976 or so that it was like he woke up one morning and everything cost double. He said it took a decade to settle into the new normal of what everything cost.

This feels like one of those times. It seems alot people feel about Biden the way people did about Carter. Right man wrong time. But Trump ain't Reagan. We are really over due as nation for a younger generation to assume the levers of leadership. And I am afraid if it doesn't, it will have only taken one generation to lose the democracy we died to defend.

 

[92tide]

this isn't 1976 and biden isn't carter. i would suggest not paying so much attention to the firehose of virtue signaling concern trolling that has been at 11 since about 2015

 

[JDCrimson]

Im not sure what you mean...

this isn't 1976 and biden isn't carter. i would suggest not paying so much attention to the firehose of virtue signaling concern trolling that has been at 11 since about 2015

 

[92tide]

Im not sure what you mean...

don't listen to the "omg dems are doomed" rhetoric. it's long been a staple of the right wing puke funnel

 

[crimsonaudio]

don't listen to the "omg dems are doomed" rhetoric. it's long been a staple of the right wing puke funnel

I don't think @JDCrimson suggesting that Biden feels similar to Carter is 'omg' - the polls are pretty clear right now that most people aren't happy with Biden.

That doesn't mean the dems are doomed (or will even lose) in 2024 - it's just an acknowledgment of what the general public seems to think - right now. That can change quickly.

 

[92tide]

I don't think @JDCrimson suggesting that Biden feels similar to Carter is 'omg' - the polls are pretty clear right now that most people aren't happy with Biden.

That doesn't mean the dems are doomed (or will even lose) in 2024 - it's just an acknowledgment of what the general public seems to think - right now. That can change quickly.

i was just using jd's post as a jumping off point

i think the constant "dems are doomed because biden is old" is a lot of the reason polls are showing folks unhappy with biden. it's self fulfilling.

that and the constant reporting/discussion of inflation as if we are living in a crumbling society and have to use wheelbarrows full of trillion dollar bills to buy a loaf of stale bread.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

My dad mentions that back in 1976 or so that it was like he woke up one morning and everything cost double. He said it took a decade to settle into the new normal of what everything cost.

This feels like one of those times. It seems alot people feel about Biden the way people did about Carter. Right man wrong time. But Trump ain't Reagan. We are really over due as nation for a younger generation to assume the levers of leadership. And I am afraid if it doesn't, it will have only taken one generation to lose the democracy we died to defend.

He's a little early. Here's a table showing when it happened, and it never doubled prices...

Inflation Table

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Look, I don't know how to interpret any of it - and polls now tend to be meaningless but hey, people live their lives by them, right?

This - to me - is a substantially bigger problem the Republicans have than ANY problem the Democrats have right now (setting aside the obvious):

FEC Filing:
The Republican National Committee has just $9,956,381 cash on hand.

END OF NOVEMBER EACH YEAR
2016 $21,354,030
2017 $39,838,889
2018 $27,008,324
2019 $63,233,392
2020 $58,777,814
2021 $65,468,902
2022 $17,275,601

2023 $9,956,381

 

[jthomas666]

Interesting:

Wait, What? Biden’s Ahead?

Over the last three months many Democrats have gotten accustomed to seeing...

talkingpointsmemo.com

Let’s start with the latest NYT/Sienna poll released this week: the lead story ran “Poll Finds Wide Disapproval of Biden on Gaza, and Little Room to Shift Gears.” Not good! Indeed, not simply the article but the poll itself includes lots of ominous or at least troubling news for President Biden. But there’s one detail that didn’t make it into the story: Among likely voters, Biden actually led Trump by two percentage points.

 

[JDCrimson]

Still paying Trump's legal expenses I see. They wont be able to provide much support down ballot with this trend. If Trump manages to get elected and the Democrats control Congress, he probably gets impeached again and it may be a toss up that he gets convicted.

Look, I don't know how to interpret any of it - and polls now tend to be meaningless but hey, people live their lives by them, right?

This - to me - is a substantially bigger problem the Republicans have than ANY problem the Democrats have right now (setting aside the obvious):

FEC Filing:
The Republican National Committee has just $9,956,381 cash on hand.

END OF NOVEMBER EACH YEAR
2016 $21,354,030
2017 $39,838,889
2018 $27,008,324
2019 $63,233,392
2020 $58,777,814
2021 $65,468,902
2022 $17,275,601

2023 $9,956,381

 

[CrimsonJazz]

Look, I don't know how to interpret any of it - and polls now tend to be meaningless but hey, people live their lives by them, right?

This - to me - is a substantially bigger problem the Republicans have than ANY problem the Democrats have right now (setting aside the obvious):

FEC Filing:
The Republican National Committee has just $9,956,381 cash on hand.

END OF NOVEMBER EACH YEAR
2016 $21,354,030
2017 $39,838,889
2018 $27,008,324
2019 $63,233,392
2020 $58,777,814
2021 $65,468,902
2022 $17,275,601

2023 $9,956,381

I saw this earlier today. All that tells me is that GOP donations are way down because voters don’t trust them anymore and I can’t blame them. I’m betting donations to individual candidates are actually up. The GOP has proven time and time again that they give less than a damn about their constituency (and specifically the issues they care about.)

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I saw this earlier today. All that tells me is that GOP donations are way down because voters don’t trust them anymore and I can’t blame them. I’m betting donations to individual candidates are actually up. The GOP has proven time and time again that they give less than a damn about their constituency (and specifically the issues they care about.)

Let's see, a party that:
- took 15 (??) ballots to get a Speaker
- threw him overboard later on in an internal GOP war between the spineless and the trafficker
- replaced him with an even bigger moron as though that was easily done
- proposed to impeach Biden for....well, nothing....
- and held up military promotions all year.....
- while having a guy with 91 indictments and already guilty of fraudulent business per a judge leading
- while his former attorney just got socked with a judgment and filed Trumpruptcy
- and has somehow become an apologist for Russia...
....

that party is having trouble raising money?

You don't say.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Still paying Trump's legal expenses I see. They wont be able to provide much support down ballot with this trend. If Trump manages to get elected and the Democrats control Congress, he probably gets impeached again and it may be a toss up that he gets convicted.

I see no way the Democrats can muster 60 votes to convict...

 

[AWRTR]

Interesting:

Wait, What? Biden’s Ahead?

Over the last three months many Democrats have gotten accustomed to seeing...

talkingpointsmemo.com

I like to look at the average of the polls. I think that's a better picture. The averages of the polls were pretty spot on in 2020 even though there are outliers here and there.