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What CFP should be (plus if we added a Group of 5 playoff)

Cruloc

Cruloc

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Sep 1, 2019
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What we should have:
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Miami
11. Notre Dame
12. BYU

Group of 5 should have their own playoff:
1. Tulane (11-2) (AAC Champ)
2. James Madison (12-1) (SBC Champ)
3. Boise State (9-4) (MWC Champ)
4. Western Michigan (9-4) (MAC Champ)
5. Kennesaw State (10-3) (CUSA Champ)
6. North Texas (11-2)
7. South Florida (9-3)
8. UNLV (10-3)
9. San Diego State (9-3)
10. Memphis (8-4)
11. Toledo (8-4)
12. East Carolina (8-4)
 
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Cruloc said:
What we should have:
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Miami
11. Notre Dame
12. BYU

Group of 5 should have their own playoff:
1. Tulane (11-2) (AAC Champ)
2. James Madison (12-1) (SBC Champ)
3. Boise State (9-4) (MWC Champ)
4. Western Michigan (9-4) (MAC Champ)
5. Kennesaw State (10-3) (CUSA Champ)
6. North Texas (11-2)
7. South Florida (9-3)
8. UNLV (10-3)
9. San Diego State (9-3)
10. Memphis (8-4)
11. Toledo (8-4)
12. East Carolina (8-4)
Click to expand...
G5 should be in a separate league entirely. Like D1b or something. You simply can’t have a sports league with over 130 teams and only 12 regular season games and have the system include everyone. No other sports league in the world does this. You can incorporate promotion and demotion between levels like they do in soccer leagues, but you simply can’t have a 130 team league where everyone has a chance at winning a single title. I’d say the upper cutoff is about 60ish teams in a league.
 
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RammerJammer14 said:
G5 should be in a separate league entirely. Like D1b or something. You simply can’t have a sports league with over 130 teams and only 12 regular season games and have the system include everyone. No other sports league in the world does this. You can incorporate promotion and demotion between levels like they do in soccer leagues, but you simply can’t have a 130 team league where everyone has a chance at winning a single title. I’d say the upper cutoff is about 60ish teams in a league.
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Yes.

I'd also add you can't have these conferences be at 16-20 teams without some sort of divisions or pods. Case in point...ATM getting to the end and only having played the bottom half of the league.

There are just too many teams.
 
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It's an excellent idea and it needs to happen. The question is, what would this do for the G5 financially? Can it meet or exceed what they are currently making from the CFP? That is the ONLY reason they are being included. Anti-trust.

It has nothing to do with anyone actually believing they can compete on the field.
 
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Well I used AI to hammer out a 24 team model, that uses this season as a model of what it would look like. Have fun!

The "24 Team" Model: 2025 Season Results​

The 24-Team Model solves this instantly by following two hard rules:
  1. If you win your league, you are in. (Validates the Championship Game).
  2. If you want a Bye, you must earn it mathematically. (Validates the Regular Season).
  3. Hard Filter: To be eligible for an At-Large bid, a team must have a winning percentage of .660 or higher (essentially 8 wins). This prevents a 6–6 team with a "tough schedule" from mathematically slipping in.
  4. The "No-FCS" Clause: Games against FCS (lower division) opponents are removed from the data set entirely. They do not count for wins, losses, or efficiency stats. This prevents teams from gaming the system with easy wins.
Here is the finalized objective bracket based on the confirmed 2025 results.

I. The 10 Automatic Qualifiers (AQs)​

These teams punched their ticket on the field by hoisting a trophy. No committee debate.
  1. Indiana (13–0) – Big Ten Champion (Def. Ohio State)
  2. Georgia (12–1) – SEC Champion (Def. Alabama)
  3. Texas Tech (12–1) – Big 12 Champion (Def. BYU)
  4. James Madison (12–1) – Sun Belt Champion (Def. Troy)
  5. Tulane (11–2) – AAC Champion (Def. North Texas)
  6. Kennesaw State (10–3) – CUSA Champion (Def. Jacksonville State)
  7. Western Michigan (9–4) – MAC Champion (Def. Miami-OH)
  8. Boise State (9–4) – MWC Champion (Def. UNLV)
  9. Duke (8–5) – ACC Champion (Def. Virginia)
  10. Oregon State (2–10) – Disqualified (Did not meet win threshold).
  • Correction: Since the Pac-12 (Pac-2) had no champion with a winning record, this AQ converts to an extra At-Large Bid.

II. The 15 At-Large Bids​

The highest-ranked remaining teams by "Composite Score" (using AP/CFP final rank proxies).
The Elites (Locks)
  • Ohio State (12–1), Oregon (11–1), Ole Miss (11–1), Texas A&M (11–1), Oklahoma (10–2), Alabama (10–3), Notre Dame (10–2), Miami FL (10–2).
The Bubble (Middle Class)
  • BYU (11–2), Vanderbilt (10–2), Texas (9–3), Utah (10–2), USC (9–3), Arizona (9–3), Michigan (9–3).

III. The Objective Bracket (Seeds 1–24)​

Tier 1: The Byes (Seeds 1–8)​

Reward: Rest and Home Field Advantage in Round 2.
SeedTeamCredential
1Indiana (13–0)Undefeated Big Ten Champ.
2Ohio State (12–1)Highest rated At-Large (only loss to #1).
3Georgia (12–1)SEC Champ.
4Texas Tech (12–1)Big 12 Champ.
5Oregon (11–1)Elite efficiency metrics.
6Ole Miss (11–1)Dominant MOV (Margin of Victory).
7Texas A&M (11–1)Strong SOS.
8Oklahoma (10–2)Edges out Bama/ND on strength of wins.

Tier 2: The Play-In Round (Seeds 9–24)​

Games played December 19–20 at the Home Stadium of the higher seed.
The "Chaos" Effect:
Because Duke (8–5), Western Michigan (9–4), and Kennesaw State (10–3) are automatic qualifiers, they enter the bracket. However, the Objective Model seeds them strictly by their rating. This means they drop to seeds #22–24, forcing them to play the hardest road games.
  • #24 Western Michigan (MAC Champ) @ #9 Alabama (10–3)
  • The matchup: Alabama is punished for losing the SEC title game by having to play an extra week, but they get a "tune-up" against the MAC champs in Tuscaloosa.
  • #23 Kennesaw State (CUSA Champ) @ #10 Notre Dame (10–2)
  • The matchup: A historic moment for Kennesaw State visiting South Bend.
  • #22 Duke (ACC Champ) @ #11 Miami FL (10–2)
  • The matchup: An ACC rematch! Miami is furious they didn't win the title, but they get to host the actual champions to prove a point.
  • #21 Boise State (MWC Champ) @ #12 BYU (11–2)
  • The matchup: The "Holy War" proxy. BYU lost the Big 12 title and fell to #12; they host their future conference mates.
  • #20 Arizona (9–3) @ #13 Vanderbilt (10–2)
  • The matchup: Vanderbilt's dream season continues hosting a playoff game against a potent Arizona offense.
  • #19 Michigan (9–3) @ #14 Texas (9–3)
  • The matchup: Two blue bloods who underperformed slightly. Texas gets the home field by a decimal point in the rankings.
  • #18 USC (9–3) @ #15 Utah (10–2)
  • The matchup: A massive Big 12/Pac-12 reunion battle in Salt Lake City.
  • #17 Tulane (AAC Champ) @ #16 James Madison (Sun Belt Champ)
  • The matchup: The G5 Super Bowl. Because both finished highly ranked (Top 20), they earned a matchup against each other. The winner gets a shot at #1 Indiana.

IV. Why this is better than the 12-Team Committee​

  1. Duke is In: In the current real-life model, the committee would likely snub 8–5 Duke, rendering the ACC Championship Game meaningless. Here, Duke is respected as a champion but seeded appropriately (#22).
  2. The "Last Team In": The cut-line was ruthless. Michigan (#19) and Arizona (#20) barely made it. Virginia (10–3), despite being ACC runner-up, likely falls to #25 or #26 because of the loss to Duke, objectively punished for choking in the title game.
  3. No "Eye Test" Bias: Kennesaw State (10–3) is in. They probably won't beat Notre Dame, but they earned the right to try on the field, rather than being dismissed in a boardroom.
 
Cruloc said:
What we should have:
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Miami
11. Notre Dame
12. BYU

Group of 5 should have their own playoff:
1. Tulane (11-2) (AAC Champ)
2. James Madison (12-1) (SBC Champ)
3. Boise State (9-4) (MWC Champ)
4. Western Michigan (9-4) (MAC Champ)
5. Kennesaw State (10-3) (CUSA Champ)
6. North Texas (11-2)
7. South Florida (9-3)
8. UNLV (10-3)
9. San Diego State (9-3)
10. Memphis (8-4)
11. Toledo (8-4)
12. East Carolina (8-4)
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Pretty much going back to the old 1a and 1aa system would seem to make a lot of sense.

I'm a JMU grad but I'm open-minded enough to understand that JMU has basically zero chance of winning it all and only slightly better odds of even winning a playoff game.

Quite frankly, I'd rather win an FCS national championship every so often than make it to the FBS playoff once every decade or so and get smashed by a Power 4 team.
 
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davefrat said:
Pretty much going back to the old 1a and 1aa system would seem to make a lot of sense.

I'm a JMU grad but I'm open-minded enough to understand that JMU has basically zero chance of winning it all and only slightly better odds of even winning a playoff game.

Quite frankly, I'd rather win an FCS national championship every so often than make it to the FBS playoff once every decade or so and get smashed by a Power 4 team.
Click to expand...

I imagine the viewership isn't going to be great with these two group of 5 games too. Plus they are on TNT/HBO Max, further driving viewership down.

Every now and then, if the current format continues, we'll get an upset in one of these first round games with a group of 5 team. But no way these teams ever make a run.
 
Cruloc said:
Yes.

I'd also add you can't have these conferences be at 16-20 teams without some sort of divisions or pods. Case in point...ATM getting to the end and only having played the bottom half of the league.

There are just too many teams.
Click to expand...

I swear if I never hear the word pod again, I will be happy.

Divisions are just as big a problem. 16 or more is too many teams for one conference. You will almost always end up with one division being difficult and one being easier. Plus you never really know how good or bad teams will be. Everyone keeps pointing out 8&4's "easy" schedule. It didn't look that easy a year ago.Who knew lsu, Florida, USce would be terrible?
 
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If you're trying to save the current model, I see where you are coming from. The truth is we went too far - twelve teams are too many.

Even with your proposal, teams 13-15 will still stake their claim and the discourse will be very much the same (especially around G5 being worthy). If we look at your list and just 1-6 (TAMU may actually have beaten out Ole Miss in this case), that seems like a much better "fix" to me.

I also like the idea of a play-in but have no clue how it could work. I just think shrinking the field makes the most sense and giving teams 6-10 a chance to earn the final 1-2 spots could work (again, in theory).
 
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DzynKingRTR said:
I swear if I never hear the word pod again, I will be happy.

Divisions are just as big a problem. 16 or more is too many teams for one conference. You will almost always end up with one division being difficult and one being easier. Plus you never really know how good or bad teams will be. Everyone keeps pointing out 8&4's "easy" schedule. It didn't look that easy a year ago.Who knew lsu, Florida, USce would be terrible?
Click to expand...

POD
 
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DzynKingRTR said:
I swear if I never hear the word pod again, I will be happy.

Divisions are just as big a problem. 16 or more is too many teams for one conference. You will almost always end up with one division being difficult and one being easier. Plus you never really know how good or bad teams will be. Everyone keeps pointing out 8&4's "easy" schedule. It didn't look that easy a year ago.Who knew lsu, Florida, USce would be terrible?
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Since we're already going the way of the NFL, why not break it up into PODS.

I mean, that's kind of what we're doing now with the 3 permanent opponents for everyone...in their own POD.

POD 1
Alabama
Auburn
Tennessee
Mississippi State

POD 2
Florida
Georgia
Kentucky
South Carolina

POD 3
LSU
Ole Miss
Missouri
Vanderbilt

POD 4
Texas
Oklahoma
Texas A&M
Arkansas

Four PODs. How many PODs does the SEC make to make the SEC full of PODS!!!!
 
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Cruloc said:
What we should have:
1. Indiana
2. Ohio State
3. Georgia
4. Texas Tech
5. Oregon
6. Ole Miss
7. Texas A&M
8. Oklahoma
9. Alabama
10. Miami
11. Notre Dame
12. BYU

Group of 5 should have their own playoff:
1. Tulane (11-2) (AAC Champ)
2. James Madison (12-1) (SBC Champ)
3. Boise State (9-4) (MWC Champ)
4. Western Michigan (9-4) (MAC Champ)
5. Kennesaw State (10-3) (CUSA Champ)
6. North Texas (11-2)
7. South Florida (9-3)
8. UNLV (10-3)
9. San Diego State (9-3)
10. Memphis (8-4)
11. Toledo (8-4)
12. East Carolina (8-4)
Click to expand...
I would have Vanderbilt instead of Notre Dame or BYU. Otherwise, I would agree.
 
crimsonaudio said:
There's no reasonable person on the plane that thinks anyone ranked outside of the top 6 has a claim to being the best team in the country.

A 24 team playoff? What's the point? Why even play regular season games if basically everyone that wins 75% of their games gets invited.
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I think the legitimate arguments for an expanded playoff would be:
1. Inclusivity of all conference champions
2. Economics (unless this thing get would back to a smaller field, bowls are dead and that revenue stream dies). Two rounds of home playoff games will have a positive economic impact
3. TV inventory of meaningful games in December and January.
4. a 24 team field gives all conference champs access, but also allows a larger pool of P5 non champs into the field which addresses complaints like Notre Dame is better than JMU and should not be removed for them.
 
crimsonaudio said:
There's no reasonable person on the plane that thinks anyone ranked outside of the top 6 has a claim to being the best team in the country.

A 24 team playoff? What's the point? Why even play regular season games if basically everyone that wins 75% of their games gets invited.
Click to expand...

I'm fine with going back to a four team playoff. Having a playoff with this years top four would be fine with me.
 
Cruloc said:
Yes.

I'd also add you can't have these conferences be at 16-20 teams without some sort of divisions or pods. Case in point...ATM getting to the end and only having played the bottom half of the league.

There are just too many teams.
Click to expand...
Ole Miss wasn’t much better. The tie breaker for the 7-1 SEC teams was SEC opponents winning % in SEC games
  1. Alabama .500
  2. Georgia .4688
  3. Ole Miss .3438
  4. TAMU .2813
 
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