Poll: Donald Trump hush money case - what will the verdict be?

Predict the verdict - Trump hush money trial


  • Total voters
    30
  • Poll closed .

CrimsonJazz

All-American
May 27, 2022
3,907
4,605
187
After all the nonsense, I'm thinking hung jury which is the best conceivable outcome for both parties. Trump avoids the conviction and Dems avoid losing more points to Orange Man Bad. Anything else could bring chaos.
 

AWRTR

All-American
Oct 18, 2022
2,179
3,131
187
I don’t see a NY jury not convicting. If their names get out they will have to go into hiding.
 

4Q Basket Case

FB|BB Moderator
Staff member
Nov 8, 2004
9,747
13,422
237
Tuscaloosa
To answer the question, I think there will be some convictions on lesser charges, but a hung jury on one or more major ones.

Reasoning is purely mathematical. It takes only one holdout among 12 jurors. Say only 10% of the jury pool are Trump supporters. So 90% aren't. The problem is that 90% to the 12th power is about 28%. Which means that there's a 72% chance of having a potential holdout.

Personally, I think he did what he's accused of doing. But it's not illegal to pay hush money. The illegality comes in the mis-representation of campaign finances -- by about $130K or so.

Here's a link to Open Secrets, a website that claims to present total campaign expenditures in 2020. It says that Trump spent about $1.1B and Biden roughly $1.6B. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but it's the best I could do on short notice, and for me at least, passes the smell test.

Summary data for Donald Trump, 2020 cycle • OpenSecrets

$130K is a hair over one one-hundredth of one percent (i.e., just over one ten-thousandth) of Trump's $1.1 Billion total spend.

I don't think any presidential campaign of any major party has 100% accurate disclosures. At the 10-figure level, with all the sources of revenue and destinations of that cash, it's simply impossible no matter how pure the intent.

Do we really want Billion-dollar financial disclosures examined at the 0.01% level of materiality, with criminal charges waiting for someone at the end of the audit?

Donald Trump is a horrible human being on so many levels. I do not support him and have not since he showed his true colors in 2017. I hope Earle is right on the conviction.

My criticism is that, of all his many illegal deeds, they chose this one to prosecute?
 
Last edited:

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
21,427
17,173
282
Boone, NC
Ironically, whatever happens probably helps his campaign for the Presidency.

I suspect he's convicted of some of the charges but probably doesn't do time.
 

rolltide_21

Hall of Fame
Dec 9, 2007
11,514
7,632
187
NW AL
Trump offended more people on a recent outing than all of this mess. He walked into Chick-fil-A and said, “Give me 30 milkshakes & some chicken.” You can tell he’s never stepped foot in one to order the Lord’s chicken. That offended more Christians than when he said TWO Corinthians. 😜
 
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Reactions: 92tide and AWRTR

TIDE-HSV

Senior Administrator
Staff member
Oct 13, 1999
84,765
40,236
437
Huntsville, AL,USA
To answer the question, I think there will be some convictions on lesser charges, but a hung jury on one or more major ones.

Reasoning is purely mathematical. It takes only one holdout among 12 jurors. Say only 10% of the jury pool are Trump supporters. So 90% aren't. The problem is that 90% to the 12th power is about 28%. Which means that there's a 72% chance of having a potential holdout.

Personally, I think he did what he's accused of doing. But it's not illegal to pay hush money. The illegality comes in the mis-representation of campaign finances -- by about $130K or so.

Here's a link to Open Secrets, a website that claims to present total campaign expenditures in 2020. It says that Trump spent about $1.1B and Biden roughly $1.6B. I don't know if it's accurate or not, but it's the best I could do on short notice, and for me at least, passes the smell test.

Summary data for Donald Trump, 2020 cycle • OpenSecrets

$130K is a hair over one one-hundredth of one percent (i.e., just over one ten-thousandth) of Trump's $1.1 Billion total spend.

I don't think any presidential campaign of any major party has 100% accurate disclosures. At the 10-figure level, with all the sources of revenue and destinations of that cash, it's simply impossible no matter how pure the intent.

Do we really want Billion-dollar financial disclosures examined at the 0.01% level of materiality, with criminal charges waiting for someone at the end of the audit?

Donald Trump is a horrible human being on so many levels. I do not support him and have not since he showed his true colors in 2017. I hope Earle is right on the conviction.

My criticism is that, of all his many illegal deeds, they chose this one to prosecute?
92 is correct. This is the only prosecution which proceeded at a normal pace. The most "open and shut" case, IMO, is the documents case. In that case, he drew sheer gold in the random selection of the judge, who has ruled like a true Trumper, whether she is or not. His attorneys were unable to slow down the NY case...
 

Its On A Slab

All-SEC
Apr 18, 2018
1,307
1,750
182
Pyongyang, Democratic Republic of Korea
Of course, there is no such verdict, only "not guilty beyond a reasonable doubt"...
Agreed. But to the True Believers, such a verdict completely vindicates him, totally innocent.

Like when his impeachments failed. And when Mueller decided that charges wouldn't be brought for Russian interference, when i was clear that Russia meddled in the 2016 election. We just couldn't provide enough nexus to connect the Orange Man. He clearly benefited from the interference.
 

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