News Article: Good luck dealing with a pandemic, depending on this administration...

Status
Not open for further replies.
For those who think the big number projections are unrealistic:



Welcome to all the new folks. We have been discussing this with similar numbers for a while now. Some say they are alarming. You should be alarmed. You should not be panicked.

Serious question. Why is the projection for the U.S. 160M infected when China is at approximately 80K and seems to be stabilizing? Is China significantly under reporting or were they willing to take extraordinary measures that American citizens are likely to reject?
 
  • Like
Reactions: dWarriors88
My wife and her colleagues are prepared to spend multiple days at the hospital.

My daughter just started Spring Break, and it will be extended to March 30.

My office will start mandatory teleworking on Monday. The good thing is that I'll be able to spend a lot of time with my daughter. The bad thing is that my wife will expect me to do house work.
I've been doing a large part of my work from home for 25 years. The pluses are working in sweats. The minuses are having every minute of your day invaded. Today was a 12-hour pull, facing down a defaulting subcontractor on a multi-million dollar contract, so I can get 29 disabled workers back to work. I'll admit there are times I wish I could go back to turning the lights out and going home...
 
  • Like
Reactions: NationalTitles18
Serious question. Why is the projection for the U.S. 160M infected when China is at approximately 80K and seems to be stabilizing? Is China significantly under reporting or were they willing to take extraordinary measures that American citizens are likely to reject?
I think the 160m is the theoretical max, if we don't manage to slow the progression. I don't think there's any doubt that China is underrporting, but, yes, they are definitely able to take steps that would simply never fly here...
 
Serious question. Why is the projection for the U.S. 160M infected when China is at approximately 80K and seems to be stabilizing? Is China significantly under reporting or were they willing to take extraordinary measures that American citizens are likely to reject?

1. The projection is just that. It assumes their will be no change in behavior so the growth is not stymied. When people do change behavior that changes everything. and

2. China changed behavior. The government ordered it and the people there are conditioned to be compliant. They locked down a province. 60 million people were ordered to stay home and they did.

3. China likely is underreporting. I have now heard from two independent sources that up to two millions were dead from this in China. I take each with a huge grain of salt.

4. If Americans want to end the already draconian and soon to grow more so measures to restrict movement then they must demand testing. That's the only way to change this from the shotgun approach to a precise target that lets everyone else return to work and school.
 
Below is the quote on which I'm basing my calculations. I did this earlier today based on an every five day doubling and the results were sobering. Reports tonight are that there are almost or just over 1,000 cases in the United States tonight so I will use 1,000 current cases and 32 deaths as the starting point and we will double every four days based on guidance from ADEM as noted below.

Using those benchmarks, there will be in 28 days' time:

128,000 CoViD-19 cases in the United States along with
4,096 deaths - assuming the case fatality rate remains the same.

In 60 days there will be in the US, according to this very simple model:

32,768,000 cases
1,048,576 deaths

This does not take into account any mitigating or exacerbating factors or public health measures. I would not depend on warm weather, luck, a hunch, or even hand washing to stop this from happening.

DO NOT PANIC!!! Do prepare. Do DEMAND that your government does a better job NOW to prevent this.


We need to work TOGETHER to stop this. I don't give a rat's ass what party you belong to. We are all in the same boat and what affects one of us affects all of us - no man is an island unto himself. We NEED each other and we need to pull in the same direction. I hope we remember how to do that as Americans, regardless of party, regardless of Trump, regardless of any damn thing else.

Those types of numbers are staring the whole world in the face and the only thing that has stopped it has been massive public health efforts like in China and Italy.

Please just keep your social distance and be smart and DEMAND your government do its first job - protecting us from harm.

Quote: But Brian Hastings, director of the Alabama Emergency Management Agency, says just because no one has tested positive doesn’t mean the virus is not in Alabama.

“So recently, if you guys have been looking at the (national) data it actually shows that we’re increasing about 25-30% daily. So about every four days we should expect the numbers to double,” Hastings says. “So no one should be surprised by that. This is just managing some expectations here. This is called infectious disease.”


Using basic modeling - very basic - the prediction for roughly 9 PM tonight is roughly 2,000 infected and 64 dead.

Per CNN: More than 2,200 people had been diagnosed with coronavirus as of late Friday night and 49 have died.

We are unfortunately on pace to meet expectations. The changes we made this week will not "show up" in the statistics for a while, especially since death occurs anywhere from 2-6 weeks after infection. That's important to understand. More testing will expose many more infections - perhaps more than we expect to find. That should not discourage us in the actions we are taking since we will uncover what we've missed and there will be a lag before the stats show signs of improvement. Hopefully we can avoid the worst.
 
2 really good articles in the Wall Street Journal today. One is on the nature of viruses, how they act and attack...and the good they do. I did not know they were virtually encased DNA.

Second deals with the difference between Leadership and Management in a crisis situation. Management works to pull the drowning children out of a river...leadership works to stop them from being thrown into the river in the first place. (I know, not a pleasant illustration, but it is the one they used.) We are suffering from a lack of leadership on all fronts, it seems.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Advertisement

Trending content

Advertisement

Latest threads