Is there a scenario where we still back into the playoffs?

KrAzY3

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Kinda sad that we will be glued to TV showing Clemson vs SMU
I really think we might not need to be.

If Boise State loses and Georgia wins, the path to SMU staying ahead of Alabama with a loss becomes so narrow it becomes almost impossible.

I would add that we've been work-shopping how a 3 loss Alabama team gets in for a while, just assuming the loss was in the SECCG and not to Oklahoma. Those things happened the week Alabama lost to Oklahoma (otherwise Ole Miss is in right now). Then, Miami and Clemson lost, not only clearing the path but somewhat weakening the ACC's case.

Listening to the guys on the show talk about it, they seemed to think SMU doesn't really drop with a loss, but I honestly have no idea where they got that idea from. As the week progresses I think you'll see people come around to the idea that Alabama's odds of the playoff even with a SMU loss are pretty darn good.

The committee would basically have to invent a novel argument to keep SMU in with a loss. They might do it, but it would be interesting to hear them explain it logically...

if UNLV wins can Boise still get in? they are ranked very high
Even the ESPN pundits agree they wouldn't, which is interesting since it's basically the same argument for SMU still making it as well. Another reason I'm thinking that game could make Alabama a playoff lock.
 
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day-day

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IMO, your attitude completely misses the mark.

I’ll just say that Alabama does deserve to make the 12 team playoff. It was agreed on by all teams before the year began. Alabama has performed well enough by objective metrics to be anywhere from #4-7.

And Vandy lost by 3 to #2 Texas, by 3 in 2 OT to 9-3, #18 @Mo, won @AU, lost by 7 @LSU. This is not the Vandy for which we all have sympathy.

IMO, Alabama having beaten the #s 5, 13 and 18 teams is more deserving than all but 7 or 8 teams even with the losses.

  • USC does have a bad loss 27-7 at home to OM and beat #s 16&18. (My guess at the CFP ranking on Tues.)
  • Texas hasn’t beaten a ranked team this year.
  • Oregon has beaten 2 ranked teams
  • PSU has beaten 1 ranked team
  • Clemson & SMU have beaten 0 ranked teams
  • OSU has beaten 2 ranked teams and lost at home to a 5 loss team last week.
  • UT has beaten 1 ranked team and lost, really dominated more than the score, at home to Ark
  • ND has not beaten one ranked team and lost at home to Northern Illinois
  • Boise has not beaten one ranked team
  • Indiana has not beaten one ranked team
  • UGA has beaten 3 ranked teams and was dominated by OM, was out played by 1-SEC win UK and won by 1, gave up 31 to the worst team in the SEC, MSU, in a 10 point win, was out played by GT who gave up a late fumble to allow a tie and UGA won in 7 OTs

  • The top 10 teams, plus Clemson, not counting UGA, have 8 wins vs ranked teams among them (I may have missed some). Alabama has 3 alone, tied with UGA for the most in the country.
I know at this point in the thread this post is pretty old but I just read it as I'm getting caught up. UT lost to Arkansas at Arkansas.
 
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PA Tide Fan

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if UNLV wins can Boise still get in? they are ranked very high
It cannot be true that conference championship losers will not be punished. UNLV beating Boise State would be the litmus test. If they'd put 2 teams from the Mountain West in the playoff it would be a joke and demonstrate that the format can be thrown in the trash can.
 
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Tiderollin32

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The most logical explanation I’ve heard is if SMU loses they drop out because of the way the Chairman explained their exact reasoning for putting Bama ahead of Miami. They have played no one with a pulse and lost to the ones that imitated one.

Miami last week was 6 and dropped to 12. SMU is 8 and would have to drop this much based on their logic.

Still we probably would feel better if they win to end all chances of being left out.
 

BamaInBham

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Miami is a little high at 12, that's a bit problematic. But, SMU at 8 and Alabama at 11 is about as good as those two could have been.

The committee did hedge their bets a bit, they left the door open to leave Alabama out by showing they are willing to over-rank ACC teams (namely Miami).
Not really. They could never justify changing their mind next week after neither played a game and after none of their opponents except UGA played a game. They’ve never done that.

The reality is that they anticipated moving Alabama ahead of Miami a couple of weeks ago by moving Alabama in front of Miami after Alabama beat Mercer and Miami was idle.

They did not want a team clearly inferior to Alabama displacing them because they had less loss, nor did they want the SEC to have 3 and a massively inferior ACC to have 2. The ACC, apart from unusual circumstances, is a one bid league.

The SEC had 7 teams who were 9-3 or better, two more teams who were 8-4, 7-5 and rapidly improving UF, 3 more teams who are bowl eligible. OU, the 13th place team, is number 28 in the Sagarin rankings.

Congratulations Alabama, you’re in, proving once again that the CFPC is willing to make the tough decision to do right even in the face of some anti-Alabama bigots at ESPN (“analysts”, not mgmt, acctng, or marketing) - you deserved it.
 

carder24

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This is where I'm confused. The guy on the show said very simply that any team that's not playing this weekend will not change their position. Period.

So IF I understood that correctly, then why does the outcome of Clemson vs SMU matter?

But if I misunderstood, then can someone explain it to me?
Did they really say that, I mean great if that's the case, then they will just move around the teams playing next weekend amongst their current positions?
 
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BamaInBham

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If Clemson wins, it will need to be a blowout, and I am not sure that they are capable of blowing out anyone
IMO, not really. SMU is 3 spots ahead of Alabama. If they lose they will move back at least 4 spots. They moved Miami back 6 spots to get them behind Alabama.

IMO, the ACC is a one bid league most years, including this one and the SEC and B10 are 4 bid leagues most years. IMO, that was as much of a driver to include Alabama, along with Alabama’s resume and maybe subconsciously, it’s name.
 

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