Bama Game Thread: OFFICIAL POSTGAME THREAD - Bama @ LSU...

RammerJammer14

Hall of Fame
Aug 18, 2007
16,053
8,879
187
UA
Here's the chart on 2 point conversions that Saban was referring to in his post-game presser. I still didn't like the decision.

How to decide when to go for 2

EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …
MARGIN AFTER TD+1+2 (VS. +1)BETTER OPTIONMARGIN AFTER TD+1+2 (VS. +1)BETTER OPTION
-150.51.0Two08.41.8One
-141.00.4One11.86.5Two
-130.41.1Two26.55.0One
-121.11.3Same35.02.9One
-111.32.2Two42.93.1Same
-102.22.9Two53.15.2Two
-92.93.3Same65.23.3One
-83.35.2Two73.32.9Same
-75.23.1One82.92.2One
-63.12.9Same92.21.3One
-52.95.0Two101.31.1Same
-45.06.5Two111.10.4One
-36.51.8One120.41.0Two
-21.88.4Two131.00.5One
-18.48.4Same140.50.7Same
Win probability changes apply to the listed situations when there are 10 minutes remaining in the game.
Yeah and Lane played the analytics and probabilities against us last year which turned a competitive game into a rout after they blew multiple 4th downs and gave us amazing field position.

Analytics and statistics aren’t everything.
 

SMOKIESBAMAFAN

BamaNation Citizen
Oct 11, 2018
76
137
52
I just don't understand how mid-tier FCS teams can run offenses that consistently throw the ball downfield and score points with seemingly zero dropped passes, yet we can't play pitch and catch with supposed 5 star recruits.
 

LeBron47

1st Team
Aug 30, 2007
755
893
117
I will never be anything but an Alabama fan. I am 62 and Bama football for me has been as ingrained in me as my personality. But friends I have seen this movie before and sadly I know how this one ends. In 1982 Alabama hit a high water mark by beating the eventual national champion Penn State 42-21 in Birmingham. From there out the team steadily declined until it’s sad ending not because of a loss of a game but the retirement of another great coach Paul W Bryant. After that things were not the same, oh there were great wins difficult losses a few SEC titles and one National title in 1992.

It was reported that Bryant said during that season “I wish I could get them to play like I used to”…. To me that has been the story of this season. Will CNS step down or will he get his magic back and finish the season with 11 wins (counting the bowl game) or will the decline continue. Will he or does he want to make the changes in philosophy or whatever it takes to bounce back in 2023 and be a team of dominance that we have all grown to love? That decision is his and his alone. He will not be shown the door and should he decide he is up for the challenge then I am on his bandwagon whatever he does there will never be another one like him. Lane or Sark are probably the closest or even Kirby but he isn’t leaving his alma mater to continue his run he has started there.

We all knew this time could come and like the certainty of the sunrise would come, I guess the only thing left is for the Coach the GOAT to make the call. With all that is in me I want it to be delayed and never come but what we are seeing is not a lack of talent it is coaching whether it be coordinator deep or at the top. They are not getting the best out of the talent on board.

i pray with all that is in me that I am completely wrong, off base, a total blithering idiot, but it feels like I have seen this movie before…. Please let me be wrong!

Jess probably penned the greatest assessment of what happened last night. He wrote the way Cecil would have written it.. I just hope we are both wrong….
 

Tidewater

FB|NS|NSNP Moderator
Staff member
Mar 15, 2003
24,663
18,840
337
Hooterville, Vir.
Jess probably penned the greatest assessment of what happened last night. He wrote the way Cecil would have written it.. I just hope we are both wrong….
Amen.
Two analogies come readily to mind.
The first if the iconic photo of New York Football Giant and Hall of Fame QB Y. A. Tittle in 1964.
Tittle.jpeg
Tittle was in the twilight of his career and had just thrown a pick-six, got mashed in the head and had a broken sternum.
It is a sad and tragic photo, but time catches up with everyone. In 1964 it caught up to Tittle.

The other analogy is that of Frank Beamer. I grew up a Hokie fan. (My father was an alum and my first college football game was Va Tech vs USCe).
Growing up, the Hokies would be 8-3 on a good year, and 3-8 (or 2-9) on a bad one. They played in the occasional bowl game.
Frank Beamer took the reins and brought the Hokies to unprecedented heights. They started winning. A lot. They had their own brand of football: Beamer Ball, outstanding special teams, hard-nosed "lunch pail" defense, steady (if not always spectacular) offense. They played for a national championship in 1999.
Then gradually, almost imperceptibly, Beamer lost the edge. Recruiting slipped, on the field results dropped. Each year, the record seemed to be worse than the previous one. Hope would spring eternal in Blacksburg every spring and summer, and then reality would slap the Hokies in the face each autumn and the downward spiral would continue.
The authorities had a very difficult call to make. Do they fire their legendary head coach? What would that say about their gratitude for the wonderful program Beamer had once built?
Beamer, for his part, could not quit. Va Tech was paying him way too much money for anyone to quit that kind of job, regardless of how bad things got. So Va Tech slouched forward year to year, and Beamer and Va Tech saw the dismantling of the edifice Beamer had constructed. Eventually, the Va Tech came to an arrangement with its alumnus and most famous coach, and Beamer bowed out.
The Hokies have had numerous coaches, but have slid into football obscurity. In the Covid year, even though eligible, the players voted not to go to a bowl game. The damage to the program had been done.

CNS has earned the right to stay on in Tuscaloosa for as long as he wants. Nobody has done more to make Alabama football great. I hope he cleans house this winter and brings in a group of coaches with fire in the belly and builds a team that strikes fear into the opponents, a team other teams say that they hate playing against.
Only Coach Saban knows what his expectations and desires are and how much gas he has left in the tank. Coach could hire some additional coaches that can leverage the truly great athletes already on the team and forge them into a great football team.
I really hope he does not choose the Beamer route. He has every right to do so, based on what he has already done in Tuscaloosa, but it will be as sad to watch for CNS' reputation as it is painful for the University of Alabama.
 

twofbyc

Hall of Fame
Oct 14, 2009
12,222
3,377
187
Should have easily seen that coming from that formation on the 2pt play. Nothing surprising or sneaky about it. I just don't know with this staff. Something is not right and we've seen it all season. Saban is going to have to make some changes.
Saban said he would quit when it’s not fun anymore. Is he “there “ yet? Two losses by a total of four points, either of which Bama could’ve (and maybe should’ve) won - I don’t think he’s there yet, and yes we are an entitled, spoiled bunch.
So many factors, not the least of which is NIL, are likely pushing him “there” sooner rather than later. Another loss, close or not, may do it, I dunno; he has a job waiting for him on TV but is that something he wants? He’s already in commercials, so maybe - only he knows.
But I believe- and have from the start-that the portal would create “chemistry” problems. Bama doesn’t appear to be playing “as one” on either side of the ball. A portal entry does not have the same time to assimilate as a high school recruit does. JMO but I think it matters relative to the overall team psyche. I think everyone agrees the team is underperforming, and the responsibility for that is shared.
Next few weeks will tell the tale; win out and it’s an outstanding season. Two last play losses, both on the road, to top 10 teams?
Now, will that happen? We’ve seen mixed results in bowl games in this situation. Here’s to hoping the coaches and players have enough pride to make it happen.
 

TitleWave

All-American
Dec 3, 2012
3,279
927
132
Here's the chart on 2 point conversions that Saban was referring to in his post-game presser. I still didn't like the decision.

How to decide when to go for 2

MARGIN AFTER TD+1+2 (VS. +1)BETTER OPTIONMARGIN AFTER TD+1+2 (VS. +1)BETTER OPTION
EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET …
-150.51.0Two08.41.8One
-141.00.4One11.86.5Two
-130.41.1Two26.55.0One
-121.11.3Same35.02.9One
-111.32.2Two42.93.1Same
-102.22.9Two53.15.2Two
-92.93.3Same65.23.3One
-83.35.2Two73.32.9Same
-75.23.1One82.92.2One
-63.12.9Same92.21.3One
-52.95.0Two101.31.1Same
-45.06.5Two111.10.4One
-36.51.8One120.41.0Two
-21.88.4Two131.00.5One
-18.48.4Same140.50.7Same
Win probability changes apply to the listed situations when there are 10 minutes remaining in the game.
Truth is, throw the analytics out the window, you would need a sheet for going for 10, not for two, for this alleged defense protecting a lead.

The 3rd-and-7 play where the walk-on RB ran through the frightening embrace of Two Left Toes and No Tackling and left him in the dust encapsulated everything amiss with Golf Swing-and-a-Miss's defense.

Even when in position to make a stop, they find a way to fail. Cannot protect a lead. (Cannot protect any lead when a game is in doubt.) Cannot play the position (LBs). Cannot manage to get out of their own way, especially when the pile's being pushed 10 yards downfield because the one (1) DL playing hand in the dirt is getting pile-driven to a 1st down - and your main 'backer is a marshmallow taken for that ride. What kind of demoralizing must that do to an OL that cannot even protect their own QB, much less establish a run game. It's all-encompassing, this softness and unpreparedeness - and irrefutably this "out-of-positioness."

In Saban we still trust - in 100% of the coordinators, and about 85% of the program, we don't.
 
  • Like
Reactions: CrimsonRuss

bamaclimber

3rd Team
Nov 28, 2016
235
555
117
As much as I hate to say it it is. If he holds on to these two coaches I believe next year could be worse I really do.
The best predictor of future success is past success. Until the coordinators at Alabama change, this team isn't going to get better. It will likely get worse. Next year, without BY's heroics, could be painful.

Going back to last year's LSU game, this team is just a few plays away from having 6 losses in that span. 6 loses with Alabama's talent is almost criminal.
 

BamaMoon

Hall of Fame
Apr 1, 2004
22,988
21,135
282
Boone, NC
I thought I'd wake up and have a new perspective this morning. NOPE.

Still feels like the Twilight Zone.

The only thing I've got this morning is to say nobody should be surprised at the loss last night.

The "hope" we had that the bye week would offer a reset was a slim one and we knew by the middle of the 1st quarter we are who we are. We are a poorly coached, mistake-laden, weak-minded team who has a QB that's bailed us out of a couple of losses or it would be even worse.
 

CrimSonami

All-American
Jul 17, 2011
3,585
2,727
187
Ardmore, AL; too close to 10erC
Stayed off the board last night, for the most part. I had a bad feeling about this game all week. Haven’t and won’t read through all the posts. We all see what’s happening here. CNS is getting tired. He doesn’t have the same energy and demeanor. His staff and players are a reflection of that. We’re simply not a championship team right now. The dominant run we’ve enjoyed is fading. We’re a mediocre SEC program right now. I don’t like it. I hate it. It’s time for wholesale change. Will that include CNS? I don’t know but I won’t be surprised by it. But my fanhood is still intact. That will always remain.
ROLL TIDE!
 

SkinnyFats

All-SEC
Sep 5, 2021
1,189
1,470
187
According the the preview from Jess, Bama had the advantage at QB, running backs, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers, defensive backs, and special teams. LSU had advantage only at wide receivers. I don’t disagree with any of that. As somebody said above, Kelly inherited a disaster from Orgeron.

The under-performance of this team is unreal.
 

BamaSC

All-SEC
Oct 17, 1999
1,954
476
207
Chapin, SC
So what you are saying is that you do not feel that Saban, who is arguable the goat and has achieved this status in what many consider one the most competitive and dynamic eras of college football, can right the ship.

No one thought he would last this long but he has and he accomplished this by showning his willingness to pioneer, adapt and change. He also has continued to dominate in recruiting, arguably the life blood of any program. Just go look at the last 10 years of recruiting rankings and we have been #1 every year with the exception of finishing #2 twice and # 5 once, depending on the service you go by and we are currently ranked the #1class for 2023.

Coach Saban has overcome the highest assistant coaching oc dc turnover of any top program and has won multiple championships while doing so. I think he knows what needs to be done and am confident he will do it or at least I am willing to give him an opportunity before calling for him to retire or that the sky is falling. There are numerous issues on both sides of the ball, but they are all addressable and fixable which is why I say we are going to be okay.

Also, for the record and to delve a little deeper, I never said that we would magically be okay, but I also do not think it is the end of the world. If you have read any of my other posts I have non stop said that we need a new oc, dc and the sc program, on field energy, may need a look since cochran left, and for longer than most. I also said that the jawjaw tenner game would give a good insight as to how the game we had with them should have gone defensively had we had an elite dc because kirby, who runs the same type of d, will have a great game plan and they will stop tenner and adjust when necessary. Mind you jawjaw lost 8 defensive guys to the nfl last year and IMO defensively from a talent standpoint they are not better than our guys. I will take my chances with Coach Saban.

We are spoiled rotten as a fan base and it shows.

RTR
I wasn’t referring to Saban. I consider replacing both coordinators and other position coaches major changes.
 

CB4

Hall of Fame
Aug 8, 2011
11,409
18,369
187
Birmingham, AL
Yes there are some parallels to the Bryant 1982 team and Saban’s 2022 edition. But there are some caveats.
Brysnt was age 69. Saban is 71. Bryant’s health had been in extreme decline for the five years previous. He was 69 going on 89. Saban is in very good health. Outside his hip replacement and Covid, he has had very few health issues.
Bryant had reached the point where “his staff was his staff” the last couple of years. And Bryant was loyal to a fault. Saban has always been willing to “pull the trigger” on showing someone the door. (Which makes the Gol*ing situation so perplexing).
In 1982, Bryant was a physical wreck. He couldn’t have made the changes that were needed. He wasn’t capable. In 2022, I think CNS still has the chance to bring another championship to Tuscaloosa. But he knows that will require changes, lots of changes. New Coordinators, a complete re-evaluation of the program and “re-tool”. The question isn’t “can he do it”. The question is “does he want to do it”.
A personal example; I’m age 62. Back in the summer I explored an opportunity as Regional executive director for a company in the healthcare sector. Went through multiple interviews and basically the position was mine to take. I asked the regional VP for the names of some of the colleagues I would work with to get their “perspective”. Several were very candid. The job wasn’t just going to be “adjust and move forward”. It was hot mess. It was going to be a complete revamping. And not many folks pulling in the same direction. I knew almost immediately I wasn’t going to be empowered to get the job done. At age 42, or age 52 I would have most likely taken it because I would have welcomed the challenge. At age 62, I didn’t need the aggravation.
Question: Does Saban “want” to accept this challenge in the last years of his career?
 
Last edited:

CajunCrimson

Moderator (FB,BB) and Vinyl Enthusiast
Staff member
Mar 13, 2001
29,099
26,389
337
Breaux Bridge, La
Maybe I just need a break from the site. Maybe I’m just a bit emotional right now, especially living here in South Louisiana.

But to lose 2 games on two Plays regardless of how/why, and to have “fans” calling for Saban to step down is one of the most disgusting things I’ve ever seen.

We mock the fools in Lee County for far less. Coach Bryant had love and admiration until the day he died (and even beyond). But our spoiled brat fan base can’t deal with a two-loss team? So we push out the 71 year old who is about to sign the greatest recruiting class maybe ever?

Navigating new recruiting rules. A portal. And other changes. A Coach who played for a NC less than 11 months ago?

Who in the Hell do we think we are? we don’t deserve him, apparently

Very sad day in the Bama Nation. Embarrassing
 

Saban4Ever

All-American
Sep 27, 2016
3,879
3,105
187
Cobb County GA
Saban said he would quit when it’s not fun anymore. Is he “there “ yet? Two losses by a total of four points, either of which Bama could’ve (and maybe should’ve) won - I don’t think he’s there yet, and yes we are an entitled, spoiled bunch.
So many factors, not the least of which is NIL, are likely pushing him “there” sooner rather than later. Another loss, close or not, may do it, I dunno; he has a job waiting for him on TV but is that something he wants? He’s already in commercials, so maybe - only he knows.
But I believe- and have from the start-that the portal would create “chemistry” problems. Bama doesn’t appear to be playing “as one” on either side of the ball. A portal entry does not have the same time to assimilate as a high school recruit does. JMO but I think it matters relative to the overall team psyche. I think everyone agrees the team is underperforming, and the responsibility for that is shared.
Next few weeks will tell the tale; win out and it’s an outstanding season. Two last play losses, both on the road, to top 10 teams?
Now, will that happen? We’ve seen mixed results in bowl games in this situation. Here’s to hoping the coaches and players have enough pride to make it happen.

I have mixed ideas about the portal and how many players to take. Other teams like Ole Miss and LSU, etc don't seem to have chemistry problems when they use the portal. I'm not sure what the stats are on how much it would hurt recruiting to use the portal more. Guess it depends on the position. I do know that Bama needs to "hit the portal" with the OC and DC and maybe the WR and DL coaches. Get some D Linemen from the portal who are more physical.. same for O linemen.

This off season will be pivotal for the direction of the program. I knew last season would be the season to win it all, but injuries prevented that. I thought at the time that it would be at least 2 more years before we win another one. Other teams are getting better. If Saban does not fix things, it will hurt recruiting, especially at key positions. It is already tough now anyway. RTR
 

crimsonaudio

Administrator
Staff member
Sep 9, 2002
68,787
84,494
462
crimsonaudio.net
Maybe I just need a break from the site. Maybe I’m just a bit emotional right now, especially living here in South Louisiana.

But to lose 2 games on two Plays regardless of how/why, and to have “fans” calling for Saban to step down is one of the most disgusting things I’ve ever seen.

We mock the fools in Lee County for far less. Coach Bryant had love and admiration until the day he died (and even beyond). But our spoiled brat fan base can’t deal with a two-loss team? So we push out the 71 year old who is about to sign the greatest recruiting class maybe ever?

Navigating new recruiting rules. A portal. And other changes. A Coach who played for a NC less than 11 months ago?

Who in the Hell do we think we are? we don’t deserve him, apparently

Very sad day in the Bama Nation. Embarrassing
Meh.

I'm not calling for Saban to step down, but I'm also tired of glossing over the obvious issues that have existed for the last two seasons. He's not doing this as a favor to us or the university - he's the highest paid coach in CFB and has been paid handsomely for all that he's accomplished in T-town.

There is no 'deserve' at this point. And while expectations are (naturally) high, those of us complaining aren't doing so because we're "spoiled" - we're simply expecting what we've been told over and over are the most import aspects of the coaches jobs: preparing the players to be successful and making the calls to put them in that position. We're getting NEITHER of those fundamental things from this staff, and the only person who shoulders the blame is Saban.

One cannot accept praise then shun criticism. This is 100% on CNS and he needs to fix it.
 

tmv85

All-SEC
Winners don’t tolerate mediocrity. Our coaching has been mediocre. Where does that buck stop? If something isn’t done, it means somebody accepts the performance that they’ve been seeing.

I liked the screaming, headset smashing version better.
Several years ago, Coach Saban did an interview on 60 Minutes, and in that interview he said, “high achievers don’t like mediocre people, and mediocre people don’t like high achievers.” We all know what a high achiever Saban is, so it completely befuddles me that hasn’t pulled the plug on the members of the coaching staff who appear to be mediocre.
 

New Posts

Latest threads