QB Competition 2018

[BamaMoon]

I'll make this prediction, if/when Tua sees the field, he won't be a turnover machine. I know that noboby is alleging this to be the case, but the assumption is we'll have a bunch more INTs if he's the qb.

He's had 1 INT in 53 passing attempts. The UT linebacker made a great play to deflect and intercept what was likely a TD.

Even if Jalen is your preferred QB, you'd have to turn a blind eye to the fact that the reason he only has one INT in 222 attempts is because he doesn't throw many balls into tight spaces, which is part of the problem we've been discussing. In those situations he tends to tuck and run or when the play breaks down he throws it out of bounds.

So might Tua throw a few more INTs? Considering his attempts/INT ratio right now. Would you take 32 tds and 4 ints if he had 212 attempts on the year??? For comparision, Jalen has 222 attempts and 15 tds and 1 int.

Now imagine this, add all the passes Jalen hasn't throw that were likely called and imagine how much better Tua's numbers could be than the ratio currently projected. Tua throws a TD pass every 7 times he throws it.

There's no way to know how many times Jalen has run or thrown a ball out of bounds when he might could have passed, but if it's just 50 attempts, if Tua had been playing and he actually throws the ball and we add those attempts to his attempts/td/int ration how would these numbers looks right now?

262 attempts - 36 tds - 5 ints

These are just projections but just with Tua's current ball protection stats, we are not talking about catastrophic turnover problems at all.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I'll make this prediction, if/when Tua sees the field, he won't be a turnover machine. I know that noboby is alleging this to be the case, but the assumption is we'll have a bunch more INTs if he's the qb.

He's had 1 INT in 53 passing attempts. The UT linebacker made a great play to deflect and intercept what was likely a TD.

Even if Jalen is your preferred QB, you'd have to turn a blind eye to the fact that the reason he only has one INT in 222 attempts is because he doesn't throw many balls into tight spaces, which is part of the problem we've been discussing. In those situations he tends to tuck and run or when the play breaks down he throws it out of bounds.

So might Tua throw a few more INTs? Considering his attempts/INT ratio right now. Would you take 32 tds and 4 ints if he had 212 attempts on the year??? For comparision, Jalen has 222 attempts and 15 tds and 1 int.

Now imagine this, add all the passes Jalen hasn't throw that were likely called and imagine how much better Tua's numbers could be than the ratio currently projected. Tua throws a TD pass every 7 times he throws it.

There's no way to know how many times Jalen has run or thrown a ball out of bounds when he might could have passed, but if it's just 50 attempts, if Tua had been playing and he actually throws the ball and we add those attempts to his attempts/td/int ration how would these numbers looks right now?

262 attempts - 36 tds - 5 ints

These are just projections but just with Tua's current ball protection stats, we are not talking about catastrophic turnover problems at all.

These numbers are really skewed because of the situations that Tua has played in though.

 

[BamaMoon]

These numbers are really skewed because of the situations that Tua has played in though.

Agree and disagree, if that's possible.

For the most part, Tua, when he's played, has run the normal offense. That being the case, it's all we have to go on.

I know your concern is that these numbers represent playing against weaker competition, and again, it is what it is, because that's all we have to go on.

What I do think they represent is a trend that disputes the idea that Tua would cause us to have alot more INTs but also they show we would probably score alot more tds.

Tua throws a td every 7 attempts. Jalen throws a td every 15 attempts.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

I think Tua could lead us to 10+ wins over inferior competition. As far as turnovers go, yes there would probably be more but we don't know how many more. Looking at Deshaun Watson in his final two years at Clemson he had a total of 30 INT's which is 3X more that Jalen's first two years here, yet Clemson's record during that time was 28-2 with a NC while our record with Jalen is 25-2. I think that proves that throwing extra INT's does not always mean more losses if the QB is doing great things at other times. I'm not saying Tua is as great as Deshaun Watson but I can't rule it out either since Tua will continue to get better.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

Agree and disagree, if that's possible.

For the most part, Tua, when he's played, has run the normal offense. That being the case, it's all we have to go on.

I know your concern is that these numbers represent playing against weaker competition, and again, it is what it is, because that's all we have to go on.

What I do think they represent is a trend that disputes the idea that Tua would cause us to have alot more INTs but also they show we would probably score alot more tds.

Tua throws a td every 7 attempts. Jalen throws a td every 15 attempts.

Again, you can't just take numbers and ignore context. It's fine to argue that the eye test shows Tua is a better passer it's misleading at best to try and take his numbers and extrapolate them over a season and compare them to Jalen's.

 

[UAH]

I'll make this prediction, if/when Tua sees the field, he won't be a turnover machine. I know that noboby is alleging this to be the case, but the assumption is we'll have a bunch more INTs if he's the qb.
He's had 1 INT in 53 passing attempts. The UT linebacker made a great play to deflect and intercept what was likely a TD.
Even if Jalen is your preferred QB, you'd have to turn a blind eye to the fact that the reason he only has one INT in 222 attempts is because he doesn't throw many balls into tight spaces, which is part of the problem we've been discussing. In those situations he tends to tuck and run or when the play breaks down he throws it out of bounds.
So might Tua throw a few more INTs? Considering his attempts/INT ratio right now. Would you take 32 tds and 4 ints if he had 212 attempts on the year??? For comparision, Jalen has 222 attempts and 15 tds and 1 int.
Now imagine this, add all the passes Jalen hasn't throw that were likely called and imagine how much better Tua's numbers could be than the ratio currently projected. Tua throws a TD pass every 7 times he throws it.
There's no way to know how many times Jalen has run or thrown a ball out of bounds when he might could have passed, but if it's just 50 attempts, if Tua had been playing and he actually throws the ball and we add those attempts to his attempts/td/int ration how would these numbers looks right now?
262 attempts - 36 tds - 5 ints
These are just projections but just with Tua's current ball protection stats, we are not talking about catastrophic turnover problems at all.

Very thoughtful way to project what Tua's performance might have been. As we all have said it is obviously CNS decision as to when he is ready to play. We can see that he is an extraordinary talent that is so highly sought after by practically every power 5 school. One thing we surely don't want to see is him on an opposing SEC team. It is very difficult for me to understand how this QB competition can be resolved in a constructive manner beginning in 2018.

 

[CoachJeff]

If you take Jalen's passing and rushing attempts and productivity and then input Tua's productivty this is what you get:

Jalen
2005 yards passing, 15 Tds, 1 Int
768 yards rushing, 8 TDs

Tua (projected with same # of passing and rushing attempts)
1986 yards passing, 34 TDs, 4 Ints
968 yards rushing 18 TDs

Now this is obviously flawed for many reasons, but it's interesting.

 

[BamaMoon]

Again, you can't just take numbers and ignore context. It's fine to argue that the eye test shows Tua is a better passer it's misleading at best to try and take his numbers and extrapolate them over a season and compare them to Jalen's.

I'm not ignoring the context, but what else can we do but use the data we have available.

FWIW, I've said that "the eye test" is indisputable IMO concerning the comparison of their passing ability. The "context" of my earlier post was addressing the "fear" of Tua being more turnover prone.

The data (only data available) doesn't suggests that at all.

It really wasn't attempt to prove anything other than what I stated.

But I will say that "most" of Jalen's numbers were accrued against the very same defenses that Tua faced, with the exception of 4 games on our schedule and those where the games where Jalen struggled. Did those games affect Jalen's stats some? Yes, but with the data we have available on both I don't think the comparison is a flawed as you are acting.

 

[B1GTide]

But I will say that "most" of Jalen's numbers were accrued against the very same defenses that Tua faced, with the exception of 4 games on our schedule and those where the games where the defense had a pulse. Did those games affect Jalen's stats some? Yes.

FIFY

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I'm not ignoring the context, but what else can we do but use the data we have available.

FWIW, I've said that "the eye test" is indisputable IMO concerning the comparison of their passing ability. The "context" of my earlier post was addressing the "fear" of Tua being more turnover prone.

The data (only data available) doesn't suggests that at all.

It really wasn't attempt to prove anything other than what I stated.

But I will say that "most" of Jalen's numbers were accrued against the very same defenses that Tua faced, with the exception of 4 games on our schedule and those where the games where Jalen struggled. Did those games affect Jalen's stats some? Yes, but with the data we have available on both I don't think the comparison is a flawed as you are acting.

It's pretty flawed. Just read your last few points. You say that most of Jalen's numbers were accrued vs the same defenses Tua faced. But look at the fact that Jalen succeeded vs those defenses did not lead him to succeed vs the tougher defenses. So, should we not expect the same decline from Tua? If not why not? It would be more accurate to compare Tua's numbers if you somehow calculated expected drop off vs better teams and then accounted for that. Or took Jalen's stats in the games Tua played in only but even that would be pretty flawed.

I get your point about him not necessarily being turnover prone we definitely don't know either way if he is. But you can do that without comparing his td ratio to Jalen's. That is where I think your flaw is.

 

[TiderJack]

I'm not ignoring the context, but what else can we do but use the data we have available.

FWIW, I've said that "the eye test" is indisputable IMO concerning the comparison of their passing ability. The "context" of my earlier post was addressing the "fear" of Tua being more turnover prone.

The data (only data available) doesn't suggests that at all.

It really wasn't attempt to prove anything other than what I stated.

But I will say that "most" of Jalen's numbers were accrued against the very same defenses that Tua faced, with the exception of 4 games on our schedule and those where the games where Jalen struggled. Did those games affect Jalen's stats some? Yes, but with the data we have available on both I don't think the comparison is a flawed as you are acting.

A scientist would say since there is such little data that a conclusion could not be reached.

 

[B1GTide]

It's pretty flawed. Just read your last few points. You say that most of Jalen's numbers were accrued vs the same defenses Tua faced. But look at the fact that Jalen succeeded vs those defenses did not lead him to succeed vs the tougher defenses. So, should we not expect the same decline from Tua? If not why not? It would be more accurate to compare Tua's numbers if you somehow calculated expected drop off vs better teams and then accounted for that. Or took Jalen's stats in the games Tua played in only but even that would be pretty flawed.

I get your point about him not necessarily being turnover prone we definitely don't know either way if he is. But you can do that without comparing his td ratio to Jalen's. That is where I think your flaw is.

Yep - the only fact that we have about Tua is that he plays well against poor defenses. We have no data at all against solid defenses. We have no idea what those stats would look like, and you can't guess with any hope of accuracy. Every QB plays more poorly against good defenses because good defenses affect the QB. The unknown with Tua - how much would he be affected? This varies so much from one guy to the next that there is absolutely no way to guess.

 

[gamersfuel]

i think some take the "dont turn it over" too far. i'd take a stat line of 20-28 315 yds 4 td's 2 int anyday of the week over 9-23 106 yds 0td 0 int... not naming any names here btw...passing QB's are going to throw INT's. I dont care who you are or how safe you try to be or how accurate you are. That Int from Tua is waaaayyy overblown

 

[TiderJack]

i think some take the "dont turn it over" too far. i'd take a stat line of 20-28 315 yds 4 td's 2 int anyday of the week over 9-23 106 yds 0td 0 int... not naming any names here btw...passing QB's are going to throw INT's. I dont care who you are or how safe you try to be or how accurate you are. That Int from Tua is waaaayyy overblown

What if one of those int is a pick six and you lose by 3? I can't agree with the type teams we always have. That aggresive style will win 95% of our games but........

 

[mlh]

What if one of those int is a pick six and you lose by 3? I can't agree with the type teams we always have. That aggresive style will win 95% of our games but........

What if one of those INTs is a pick six...but the 4 TDs give you a win by 21? You can play "what if" all day. But if you're that worried about turnovers then Jalen is definitely your guy.

 

[dirkg]

Yep - the only fact that we have about Tua is that he plays well against poor defenses. We have no data at all against solid defenses. We have no idea what those stats would look like, and you can't guess with any hope of accuracy. Every QB plays more poorly against good defenses because good defenses affect the QB. The unknown with Tua - how much would he be affected? This varies so much from one guy to the next that there is absolutely no way to guess.

Exactly. And seeing as I’m sure CNS and our staff has seen Tua play against our defense in practice they have some sense as to how Tua plays against good defenses and they choose to not put him in that situation at the moment.


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[TIDE-HSV]

Yep - the only fact that we have about Tua is that he plays well against poor defenses. We have no data at all against solid defenses. We have no idea what those stats would look like, and you can't guess with any hope of accuracy. Every QB plays more poorly against good defenses because good defenses affect the QB. The unknown with Tua - how much would he be affected? This varies so much from one guy to the next that there is absolutely no way to guess.

Well, he plays against an excellent defense in practice. (He does get reps with the ones against the ones.) One of the young receivers refers to him in tweets as "GOAT" and "NFL quarterback"...

 

[mlh]

Exactly. And seeing as I’m sure CNS and our staff has seen Tua play against our defense in practice they have some sense as to how Tua plays against good defenses and they choose to not put him in that situation at the moment.

I have to agree. They're seeing something - be it in practice or in film study or in reading defenses or leadership or maturity or something. So we have to trust them. After all, they're the experts and they do know more than we do. Everything we've pointed out in this thread, they know. They have an entire staff of people who study and analyze these things and look for what's best for the team. I have to believe they would play the QB who gives us the best chance to win.

But I think it's going to be a very interesting off-season...maybe even an interesting playoff.

 

[B1GTide]

Well, he plays against an excellent defense in practice. (He does get reps with the ones against the ones.) One of the young receivers refers to him in tweets as "GOAT" and "NFL quarterback"...

I said we, as in members of this board. We have not seen him take a single snap against a solid defense. The ones that we did see him take against Alabama's 1st string defense went miserably in April. But Saban has seen him take snaps against your defense in practice all year and he still has not played him in those games.

I don't take this to mean that Tua can't do the job, just that we have no idea. The stats against air don't tell us.

 

[Cauthonluck151]

I said we, as in members of this board. We have not seen him take a single snap against a solid defense. The ones that we did see him take against Alabama's 1st string defense went miserably in April. But Saban has seen him take snaps against your defense in practice all year and he still has not played him in those games.

I don't take this to mean that Tua can't do the job, just that we have no idea. The stats against air don't tell us.

TUA could be better in practice but like many have said, the team keeps winning with Jalen at QB and him not turning the ball over would make it reasonable to keep playing Jalen in CNS mind. I think more goes into than just the best chance to win. Saban is excessively loyal to his QBs imo.