Re: New Discussion Thread on Possible Coaching Changes...
I don't think it would be as devastating as you're describing.
Well, with the right coach he would be able to compensate. Let's just say it was Jimbo Fisher for example (don't like that guy much, but...). Since he's been recruiting some of the same guys, and he's running a similar defense, he could deal fairly well with the situation.
However, no matter what I anticipate a few extra early entries into the NFL draft in that scenario, and a few extra transfers, especially if the coach is a radical departure from Nick Saban. That wouldn't gut the team in and of itself, but you couple that with loss of staff, and recruits, and the notion of Nick Saban leaving the team in great shape is diminished. It's not that they couldn't compete, it's just that they wouldn't be what Nick Saban built anymore.
Oddly enough, it seems Texas and Alabama very rarely cross paths in recruiting.
I suppose the first point would be that Mack Brown has been criticized for being kind of lazy with recruiting and just snagging the top ranked Texas guys. Texas would be getting Saban to do things differently, and that would include moving a bit east, in particular (as has been mentioned) Louisiana. Alabama hasn't been that far ahead of a lot of other SEC programs in recruiting, generally it's a handful of guys that really makes the difference.
I suppose one valid question would be how cordial Nick Saban might be in a departure. I'd guess in his mind, he could leave without doing great harm to what he built at Alabama, but Texas wouldn't be paying him to care about Alabama. Would he honor all of Mack Brown's scholarship offers? Would he do what's generally seen as the right thing, and not try to recruit players committed to Alabama (it's generally considered bad form for an assistant to leave Alabama and try to lure a commit away)? You can get into several gentlemanly ways for Nick Saban to leave Texas for Alabama, but that runs counter to why he'd be leaving and why they'd be paying him so much. Results are expected, and soon. The best way to do that, as I said before is to cart off as much of what he's built at Alabama as he can.
I still don't think he leaves, and those are some of the reasons why he wouldn't. He wouldn't really be under less pressure, he wouldn't really be helping his legacy, he'd just be creating new problems. Ultimately, does Nick Saban want to be the bad guy? If he does, Texas is attractive, otherwise it's not.