BREAKING trump wins, why?

[jthomas666]

I think it’s well documented she did that on her way up.

Stay classy

 

[bamamc1]

I've been mulling over this most of the day. The mistake the Harris campaign made was to focus on Trump being a terrible person. He is mind you, but everyone knew he was a terrible person 8 years ago, and he got elected. Biden was able to win as "not Trump", but even that was a close call.

Harris needed to establish her specific vision for America; Trump gave her all the leverage she needed with his "I've got a concept of an idea" in the debate. From then on, she should have focused on specific policy initiatives, introducing every single one with "I've got more than just a concept of a plan." (She did have some, I know, but we didn't hear about them often enough. Problem is, discussing policy initiatives requires more than the 30-second soundbite the media has become conditioned into generating.) Trump, as usual, lied his ass off, but he told lies that people wanted to hear.

More basically, she needed to acknowledge people's frustration with the economy. OK, so the numbers are promising. That's all well and good, but that's like pointing to the Dow Jones--it doesn't reflect what individual families are working with. That gave Trump an inflection point that he hammered home to devastating effect. And of course, he tapped into the fear of the Other, whether immigrants, LGTBQ, and then spun that web wider to include anyone who opposed him.

Back when I was in grad school at Bama, I was a member of the Alabama Student Party, a group of independents trying to make inroads into the Machine controlled SGA government. We got John Merrill elected SGA president, and the bulk of the ASP membership was convinced that we were headed to the promised land. There was only one problem--most of them thought that since we were fighting the good fight, God would smile on our endeavors and victory would most assuredly follow as day follows night. Myself and a few others repeatedly warned that good intentions mean jack squat if you don't have a well-considered plan, but we were roundly ignored, and the following year saw the Machine pull off damn near a clean sweep.

I suspect the Democrats were in a similar spot--once they established Harris as the nominee, they figured everyone would see that Harris was a vast improvement over Trump (and for all her faults, I maintain that she was). The DNC spent a LOT of money on media, but not enough on the message (apologies to Marshall McLuhan).

What policy other than when asked “What would you do differently than Biden did?” The answer: “Nothing comes to mind.” New path forward? If you didn’t need to do something differently, he’d still be running.

 

[bamamc1]

Stay classy

Double standard much?

 

[jthomas666]

What policy other than when asked “What would you do differently than Biden did?” The answer: “Nothing comes to mind.” New path forward? If you didn’t need to do something differently, he’d still be running.

1. No, if Biden were physically capable, he'd still be running.

2. Harris was reluctant to criticize Biden; that choice enabled the Trump campaign to use strategies they had already developed for Biden (seasoned with a healthy dose of racism and misogyny).

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I've been mulling over this most of the day. The mistake the Harris campaign made was to focus on Trump being a terrible person. He is mind you, but everyone knew he was a terrible person 8 years ago, and he got elected. Biden was able to win as "not Trump", but even that was a close call.

Harris needed to establish her specific vision for America; Trump gave her all the leverage she needed with his "I've got a concept of an idea" in the debate. From then on, she should have focused on specific policy initiatives, introducing every single one with "I've got more than just a concept of a plan." (She did have some, I know, but we didn't hear about them often enough. Problem is, discussing policy initiatives requires more than the 30-second soundbite the media has become conditioned into generating.) Trump, as usual, lied his ass off, but he told lies that people wanted to hear.

More basically, she needed to acknowledge people's frustration with the economy. OK, so the numbers are promising. That's all well and good, but that's like pointing to the Dow Jones--it doesn't reflect what individual families are working with. That gave Trump an inflection point that he hammered home to devastating effect. And of course, he tapped into the fear of the Other, whether immigrants, LGTBQ, and then spun that web wider to include anyone who opposed him.

Back when I was in grad school at Bama, I was a member of the Alabama Student Party, a group of independents trying to make inroads into the Machine controlled SGA government. We got John Merrill elected SGA president, and the bulk of the ASP membership was convinced that we were headed to the promised land. There was only one problem--most of them thought that since we were fighting the good fight, God would smile on our endeavors and victory would most assuredly follow as day follows night. Myself and a few others repeatedly warned that good intentions mean jack squat if you don't have a well-considered plan, but we were roundly ignored, and the following year saw the Machine pull off damn near a clean sweep.

I suspect the Democrats were in a similar spot--once they established Harris as the nominee, they figured everyone would see that Harris was a vast improvement over Trump (and for all her faults, I maintain that she was). The DNC spent a LOT of money on media, but not enough on the message (apologies to Marshall McLuhan).

I ran against the Machine for SGA president and lost 2-1. I then determined not to enter any other race that wasn't fixed...

 

[JDCrimson]

It doesnt look like the bond market is going to give the voters the relief they were wanting with the cast of their vote...

Bond Market Gets Spooked after Election

 

[4Q Basket Case]

It doesnt look like the bond market is going to give the voters the relief they were wanting with the cast of their vote...

Bond Market Gets Spooked after Election

Historically, stock and bond returns have worked against each other.

Increasing stock returns lead to higher interest rates which implied lower prices to existing bondholders. Decreasing stock returns led to lower interest rates, which implied higher prices to existing bondholders.

Market disruptions like Quantitative Easing and COVID relief, both of which lasted far too long, artificially disconnected the normal relationship.

Trouble is, bonds should be a relatively short-term solution to avoid short-term equity market volatility. Meanwhile, they provide an income stream that is both modest and low-risk, though not riskless.

Too many analysts figure in gain (or loss) in market value to the desirability of bonds. Bonds are a protection against loss of principal. The fact that they throw off some interest income is nice. But it's not the main driver of value, especially when you're talking about maturities beyond 7-10 years.

Plus, extrapolating one day's movement out into the future is a sticky game.

If you're 5 years or less from retirement, you should gradually shift equity investments into bonds. But it's not for the potential gain in market value....it's for the protection of principal (because you no longer have the multi-cyclical time frame to tolerate a decline in equity value), augmented by the modest income stream.

IOW, absent individual-specific circumstances that would shorten the investment horizon to a few months, the author doesn't understand what he's talking about.

 

[SkullDuckery]

You do realize that's what Trump did with most of his political ads correct? It seemed to work for him, unfortunately.

Well Trump makes fun of the lunatics while Harris demonizes the average American. Plus he can get away with things most can’t, he just has that personality while Harris has the personality of a badly worn frying pan.

 

[bamacpa]

I appreciate the reasons offered here because I have spent a lot of time over the last 8 years wondering why. I understand and agree that calling someone dumb is not productive.

A long time acquaintance posted his choices for the next 3 presidents - he wants "Avanka", Don Jr. and Barron Trump. Is there a word other than dumb for this ?

Is my ultimate takeaway that hard core partisans like this do not decide the elections, but rather folks like me more in the middle who have no lasting allegiance to either party ? I realize my posts here recently appear very Democratic, but I'm really just looking for the least wingnutty candidates and my view is the Republicans don't offer that right now.

 

[dayhiker]

I thought this write up was pretty good

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854234697162985695

 

[rjtide]

That's what your perception is. Abortion after a gestational period of 24 weeks by a doctor is performed in cases of emergency. Yes, I have no problem with LGBTQ rights. And that may very possibly happen for real as we move along whether you like it or not. This whole thing that just proceeded to happen right now is doing so and I do not like it. I do not like it all but it's happening. And if he goes as far as he claims he will, you will not like a good deal of it, either. If he gets what he claims to be his way, it will screw up the economy royally. What if he actually deports all of those people? Who will do those jobs? You think Americans will? At that rate of pay? And no worker's compensation and no insurance? Do you grasp what will happen to prices then?

valid points......i'm really not trying to pick a fight with anyone who voted democrat or republican as i'm a centrist and feel pretty much abandoned by both parties. i'm just opining as to why harris lost.....to trump of all people. even the most rational minded of dems have to agree that their candidate basically sucked so bad and couldn't resonate with enough voters that she couldnt beat a convicted felon.

wrt abortion of course it is a medically necessary procedure in some cases and there have to be legal protections for being able to have access to that medical service and protections for physicians to be able to perform that medical service.

lgbtq issues i will say this: adults should be allowed to decide on their chosen lifestyle as they see fit and shouldnt be marginalized for trying to live their life as they see fit.

and, whether anyone likes it or not, illegal immigration is complete bs......it cannot be rationalized. the economy as i see it is already on shaky grounds......the US economy is functioning on a bunch of IOUs. our national debt is $35 + trillion. opening the doors to illegal immigration in the name of having more workers to support the tax base is not a workable solution imo......yes we need people to work.....so incentivize LEGAL immigration.......in my corner of the world this was a big issue among my patients.....the majority of whom are working class individuals in local manufacturing plants in east central alabama.....and these people (my patients) arent racists.....they're working class whites, blacks and latinos......and so many of them kept saying this same thing......how asinine the immigration policy has been over the last couple years or so. and before anyone calls me an anti-immigrant, my parents and i are first generation immigrants that came to the US in the early 1980s as legal immigrants......i remember as a child having to go to the US consulate in new delhi with my mom and dad to get our entry documentation so we could come to the united states

again i'm not trying to start an argument with anyone. i apologize if this message comes across with any hostility

 

[Bamaro]

Apparently trump won the male Latino vote. Let that sink in, he won it. It probably goes back to 'line jumpers'. People of all ethnicities dont like line jumpers and that is how illegal immigrants are viewed, they didn't wait their turn. Latino men who voted came here the right way and dont like what they see day after day of thousands jumping the line and illegally crossing the border. The dems have 4 years to try to get their act together and come up with reasonable policy on immigration and refugee/asylum seekers. Dems already know who their opponent will be, Vance,
I know the economy was a big factor too but as I started this thread out, its immigration stupid.

 

[NationalTitles18]

I appreciate the reasons offered here because I have spent a lot of time over the last 8 years wondering why. I understand and agree that calling someone dumb is not productive.

A long time acquaintance posted his choices for the next 3 presidents - he wants "Avanka", Don Jr. and Barron Trump. Is there a word other than dumb for this ?

Is my ultimate takeaway that hard core partisans like this do not decide the elections, but rather folks like me more in the middle who have no lasting allegiance to either party ? I realize my posts here recently appear very Democratic, but I'm really just looking for the least wingnutty candidates and my view is the Republicans don't offer that right now.

As long as you remember it's OK to call democrats and the left dumb dumb dumb (quoting an earlier post), but it's not OK for democrats to say anything remotely negative about an electorate that chose Trump.

Some said Harris ran a leftist campaign.

Hogwash.

I don't know what anyone saying that was watching and don't really care, but I paid attention to much of her campaign speech (all close to the same), rallies, interviews, the one debate Trump was brave enough to have, and her campaign was anything but leftist. She spoke in broad terms but had more detail than Trump would ever discuss or admit to. She spoke over and over of unity and coalitions and working together and brought in many republicans to advocate for her elections. I should say former republicans. Those guys need to understand that even though nothing about them has changed they are no longer welcome in that party, just as I am no longer welcome.

 

[JDCrimson]

Thank you, I understand all that. But mortgage rates are heavily influenced by the 10y Treasuries and they are going up. Cost of housing has really increased in the last month.

Im afraid the American public will quickly learn they have been sold a bill of goods when comes to the affordability of the things they so passionately voted for Trump to fix.

Historically, stock and bond returns have worked against each other.

Increasing stock returns lead to higher interest rates which implied lower prices to existing bondholders. Decreasing stock returns led to lower interest rates, which implied higher prices to existing bondholders.

Market disruptions like Quantitative Easing and COVID relief, both of which lasted far too long, artificially disconnected the normal relationship.

Trouble is, bonds should be a relatively short-term solution to avoid short-term equity market volatility. Meanwhile, they provide an income stream that is both modest and low-risk, though not riskless.

Too many analysts figure in gain (or loss) in market value to the desirability of bonds. Bonds are a protection against loss of principal. The fact that they throw off some interest income is nice. But it's not the main driver of value, especially when you're talking about maturities beyond 7-10 years.

Plus, extrapolating one day's movement out into the future is a sticky game.

If you're 5 years or less from retirement, you should gradually shift equity investments into bonds. But it's not for the potential gain in market value....it's for the protection of principal (because you no longer have the multi-cyclical time frame to tolerate a decline in equity value), augmented by the modest income stream.

IOW, absent individual-specific circumstances that would shorten the investment horizon to a few months, the author doesn't understand what he's talking about.

 

[Its On A Slab]

I thought this write up was pretty good

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1854234697162985695

Convicted felon, sex offender, twice-impeached, corrupt beyond all norms.

But, aside from the shooting, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play? :/

 

[dayhiker]

Convicted felon, sex offender, twice-impeached, corrupt beyond all norms.

But, aside from the shooting, Mrs. Lincoln, how did you like the play? :/

And in spite of all of that, the left couldn't run a viable candidate to win an election that should have been a softball across the plate.

 

[NationalTitles18]

And in spite of all of that, the left couldn't run a viable candidate to win an election that should have been a softball across the plate.

When do we acknowledge that the American electorate embraced Trump and all his baggage and rejected any and every alternative?

For the record, it's possible both can be true as they are not mutually exclusive and I am not commenting now on the role of democrats.

 

[dayhiker]

When do we acknowledge that the American electorate embraced Trump and all his baggage and rejected any and every alternative?

For the record, it's possible both can be true as they are not mutually exclusive and I am not commenting now on the role of democrats.

Good point. I'm frustrated that the Democrats didn't run a primary, but then Trump actually won theirs. Both situations are terrible, imo.

 

[cdub55]

Groceries and gas seem to be the biggest hurdle. Lots of price gouging going on there but I guess it's the backup quarterback's fault.

It's still disappointing to see that personal character matters so very little in politics.

We had Trump whose transgressions have been very public running and Kamala. Kamala has a substance abuse issue that is out of hand and has more skeletons in her close than Dahmer. We weren't offered any good options in the character department unless you wanted to vote Independent and waste your vote.

 

[cdub55]

I thought the numbers were very telling when considering the 2020 election with this one.
Biden received 81 million votes and Trump with 74 million
Harris received 66 Million votes (-15M), and Trump with 71 million votes (-3M)

How, pray tell, did 18 million LESS voters show up?

Tragically 15-20 million voters died in the last 10-20 years and they were not able to get to the polls.