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Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII
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Did a pope have to pass for this epiphany?Truth Social
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US and Ukraine sign critical minerals deal
The United States and Ukraine have signed an “economic partnership agreement” that will give Washington access to Kyiv’s rare earth minerals in exchange for establishing an investment fund in Ukraine.
...
“This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” Bessant said. “And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”
Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko was in Washington to sign on behalf of the Ukrainian government
Among the terms of the agreement are “full ownership and control” staying with Ukraine, she posted to X on Wednesday.
“All resources on our territory and in territorial waters belong to Ukraine,” she said, adding: “It is the Ukrainian state that determines what and where to extract. Subsoil remains under Ukrainian ownership — this is clearly established in the Agreement.”
A minerals deal is a good thing, but a long way from peace.
I'm afraid the incentives to get Putin to agree a peace deal are not strong enough yet.
He is not responding to positive reinforcement. And right now he if he continues the fight, Russia is compensated with more and more Ukrainian territory.
The negative reinforcement for non-compliance is riskier, however. What can the West do (that they have not already done) to punish Russia for not signing a peace deal? The West has donated tens of billion of dollars worth of military aid and that has not stopped the gradual Russian advance. Send western troops to fight? Europe could stop buying Russian oil but others will buy it and getting oil from elsewhere will just cost more.
There are just limits to soft power (and semi-soft power like embargoes) can accomplish. At some point, hard power, as in military force, are needed and I am not sure anybody wants to send their troops to Ukraine to fight.
I'm afraid the incentives to get Putin to agree a peace deal are not strong enough yet.
He is not responding to positive reinforcement. And right now he if he continues the fight, Russia is compensated with more and more Ukrainian territory.
The negative reinforcement for non-compliance is riskier, however. What can the West do (that they have not already done) to punish Russia for not signing a peace deal? The West has donated tens of billion of dollars worth of military aid and that has not stopped the gradual Russian advance. Send western troops to fight? Europe could stop buying Russian oil but others will buy it and getting oil from elsewhere will just cost more.
There are just limits to soft power (and semi-soft power like embargoes) can accomplish. At some point, hard power, as in military force, are needed and I am not sure anybody wants to send their troops to Ukraine to fight.
I get it but does Russia opening another front on Ukraine coming through Belarus change the calculus for Europe and NATO? At some point what is necessary must prevail over what someone wants to do...
Putin sees the US at it weakest point geopolitically probably in 100 years under Trump's leadership. He probably sees this as his window to alter the alignment of Europe and thus has no incentive to stop the war.
Putin sees the US at it weakest point geopolitically probably in 100 years under Trump's leadership. He probably sees this as his window to alter the alignment of Europe and thus has no incentive to stop the war.
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I read an article a couple of days where Zelensky said Putin was positioning a large number of soldiers in Belarus for a major offensive.
I see.
Possible they will launch more attacks from Belarus (it is easier to take Kyiv from the west bank of the Dnieper River).
Russia has to be careful with Belarus. Belarusians like Russians, but they do not want to be Russians. And the Belarusian military told Lukashenka that, if ordered to invade Ukraine, the Belarusian Army would likely rebel. Putin cannot do whatever he wants with Belarus.
When I lived in Omaha, my neighbor across the street was an expat from Belarus. He and his wife had immigrated after the Soviet Union fell. Both worked in I.T.
He had some interesting stories about serving in a Soviet armored division. über cold nights sleeping in a tank, live fire drills. He was thankful in this country for his 3 bedroom house in the suburbs. He said he struggled to finally get a 1 bedroom apt in Belarus SSR. And tales of going without dinner on many occasions just so his infant son could eat.
His wife was always complaining that in Belarus, healthcare was free, yadda yadda. Every time she would start with that talk, I could see his blood begin to boil.
US State Department approves sale of F-16 training, support services for Ukraine
The equipment and services include aircraft modifications and upgrades as well as personnel training related to operation, maintenance, and sustainment support.
kyivindependent.com
BREAKING: The U.S. State Department approves a $310 million F-16 training and support package for Ukraine. The F-16 will form the backbone of the Ukrainian Air Force for many years to come
I know a lot has to happen between now and when this gets implemented, but having airpower on your side is really important,* and this might be a step in that direction.US State Department approves sale of F-16 training, support services for Ukraine
The equipment and services include aircraft modifications and upgrades as well as personnel training related to operation, maintenance, and sustainment support.
BREAKING: The U.S. State Department approves a $310 million F-16 training and support package for Ukraine. The F-16 will form the backbone of the Ukrainian Air Force for many years to come
* Ask the Western Allies in 1944 or the Israelis in 1967 or 1973. It is much much better to have air superiority than not.
BREAKING: Ukraine launches a large-scale attack against Russia with long-range suicide drones. Targets are being struck in several locations in western Russia and some of the drones are now flying over the Moscow region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed holding 'direct talks' with Ukraine
Putin: "We would like to start immediately, already next Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul, where they were held before and where they were interrupted."
www.wesh.com
He probably knows Ukraine will not accept.Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed holding 'direct talks' with Ukraine
Putin: "We would like to start immediately, already next Thursday, May 15, in Istanbul, where they were held before and where they were interrupted."
First, Ukraine will not accept a deal that does not come with European or American security guarantees, something Putin does not want and cannot give.
Second, Ukraine is going to need rebuilding, both in its military and its economy, also something Putin cannot or will not give/do.
This looks like something Putin has done for domestics political consumption. It shows Putin is working towards peace, but actually means nothing.
Ukraine war latest: Everyone is emotional says Kremlin, after Trump calls Putin 'absolutely crazy'
Trump stepped up his criticism of the Russian president after a weekend of major drone and missile attacks on Ukraine.
www.bbc.com
Maybe Trump can get Chuck Schumer to write a strongly worded letter.Ukraine war latest: Everyone is emotional says Kremlin, after Trump calls Putin 'absolutely crazy'
Trump stepped up his criticism of the Russian president after a weekend of major drone and missile attacks on Ukraine.
Russia is worried that they may be squandering their hard-won hole card...Ukraine war latest: Everyone is emotional says Kremlin, after Trump calls Putin 'absolutely crazy'
Trump stepped up his criticism of the Russian president after a weekend of major drone and missile attacks on Ukraine.
You do not see much on this, (operations are on-going and lives are at stake), but Georgetown U. presented an interesting piece of research.
Tip of the Spear: Analyzing Ukrainian Intelligence Operations Behind Russian Lines
Worth a quick read, but do not expect a lot of operataional details.
Tip of the Spear: Analyzing Ukrainian Intelligence Operations Behind Russian Lines
Worth a quick read, but do not expect a lot of operataional details.
Germany's Merz says there are no more range restrictions on the weapons supplied to Ukraine
Friedrich Merz has plunged into diplomatic efforts to try to secure a ceasefire and keep Western support for Ukraine intact since becoming Germany’s leader nearly three weeks ago.
apnews.com
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