Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

[Huckleberry]

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

No matter what deal I make with respect to Russia/Ukraine, no matter how good it is, even if it’s the greatest deal ever made, The Failing New York Times will speak BADLY of it. Liddle’ Peter Baker, the very biased and untalented writer for The Times, followed his Editor’s demands and wrote that...

truthsocial.com

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump)

No matter what deal I make with respect to Russia/Ukraine, no matter how good it is, even if it’s the greatest deal ever made, The Failing New York Times will speak BADLY of it. Liddle’ Peter Baker, the very biased and untalented writer for The Times, followed his Editor’s demands and wrote that...

truthsocial.com

View attachment 50629

Did a pope have to pass for this epiphany?

 

[Huckleberry]

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/30/europe/ukraine-us-mineral-deal-intl

US and Ukraine sign critical minerals deal

The United States and Ukraine have signed an “economic partnership agreement” that will give Washington access to Kyiv’s rare earth minerals in exchange for establishing an investment fund in Ukraine.

...

“This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump Administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” Bessant said. “And to be clear, no state or person who financed or supplied the Russian war machine will be allowed to benefit from the reconstruction of Ukraine.”

Ukraine’s Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko was in Washington to sign on behalf of the Ukrainian government

Among the terms of the agreement are “full ownership and control” staying with Ukraine, she posted to X on Wednesday.

“All resources on our territory and in territorial waters belong to Ukraine,” she said, adding: “It is the Ukrainian state that determines what and where to extract. Subsoil remains under Ukrainian ownership — this is clearly established in the Agreement.”

 

[Bamaro]

Lawmakers skeptical of Trump’s Ukraine deal
A draft agreement of the potential deal to split management of Ukraine’s rare earth minerals and oil and natural gas reserves that circulated Thursday did not include a firm security guarantee for Ukraine, something that several Republican senators said would be critical to any viable peace deal.

Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) cautioned that a “complicating factor” is that “a good portion of the minerals that we’re talking about are underneath the ground of where Russian soldiers are standing right now in the occupied area.”
Lawmakers skeptical over Trump's Ukraine mineral deal

 

[Tidewater]

A minerals deal is a good thing, but a long way from peace.
I'm afraid the incentives to get Putin to agree a peace deal are not strong enough yet.
He is not responding to positive reinforcement. And right now he if he continues the fight, Russia is compensated with more and more Ukrainian territory.
The negative reinforcement for non-compliance is riskier, however. What can the West do (that they have not already done) to punish Russia for not signing a peace deal? The West has donated tens of billion of dollars worth of military aid and that has not stopped the gradual Russian advance. Send western troops to fight? Europe could stop buying Russian oil but others will buy it and getting oil from elsewhere will just cost more.
There are just limits to soft power (and semi-soft power like embargoes) can accomplish. At some point, hard power, as in military force, are needed and I am not sure anybody wants to send their troops to Ukraine to fight.

 

[JDCrimson]

I get it but does Russia opening another front on Ukraine coming through Belarus change the calculus for Europe and NATO? At some point what is necessary must prevail over what someone wants to do...

Putin sees the US at it weakest point geopolitically probably in 100 years under Trump's leadership. He probably sees this as his window to alter the alignment of Europe and thus has no incentive to stop the war.

A minerals deal is a good thing, but a long way
I'm afraid the incentives to get Putin to agree a peace deal are not strong enough yet.
He is not responding to positive reinforcement. And right now he if he continues the fight, Russia is compensated with more and more Ukrainian territory.
The negative reinforcement for non-compliance is riskier, however. What can the West do (that they have not already done) to punish Russia for not signing a peace deal? The West has donated tens of billion of dollars worth of military aid and that has not stopped the gradual Russian advance. Send western troops to fight? Europe could stop buying Russian oil but others will buy it and getting oil from elsewhere will just cost more.
There are just limits to soft power (and semi-soft power like embargoes) can accomplish. At some point, hard power, as in military force, are needed and I am not sure anybody wants to send their troops to Ukraine to fight.

 

[Tidewater]

I get it but does Russia opening another front on Ukraine coming through Belarus change the calculus for Europe and NATO? At some point what is necessary must prevail over what someone wants to do...

It might. Maybe I missed it. Has Russia done that again?

 

[JDCrimson]

I read an article a couple of days where Zelensky said Putin was positioning a large number of soldiers in Belarus for a major offensive.

It might. Maybe I missed it. Has Russia done that again?

 

[Tidewater]

I read an article a couple of days where Zelensky said Putin was positioning a large number of soldiers in Belarus for a major offensive.

I see.
Possible they will launch more attacks from Belarus (it is easier to take Kyiv from the west bank of the Dnieper River).
Russia has to be careful with Belarus. Belarusians like Russians, but they do not want to be Russians. And the Belarusian military told Lukashenka that, if ordered to invade Ukraine, the Belarusian Army would likely rebel. Putin cannot do whatever he wants with Belarus.

 

[Its On A Slab]

I see.
Possible they will launch more attacks from Belarus (it is easier to take Kyiv from the west bank of the Dnieper River).
Russia has to be careful with Belarus. Belarusians like Russians, but they do not want to be Russians. An the Belarusian military told Lukashenka that, if ordered to invade Ukraine, the Belarusian Army would likely rebel. Putin cannot do whatever he wants with Belarus.

When I lived in Omaha, my neighbor across the street was an expat from Belarus. He and his wife had immigrated after the Soviet Union fell. Both worked in I.T.

He had some interesting stories about serving in a Soviet armored division. über cold nights sleeping in a tank, live fire drills. He was thankful in this country for his 3 bedroom house in the suburbs. He said he struggled to finally get a 1 bedroom apt in Belarus SSR. And tales of going without dinner on many occasions just so his infant son could eat.

His wife was always complaining that in Belarus, healthcare was free, yadda yadda. Every time she would start with that talk, I could see his blood begin to boil.

 

[crimsonaudio]

US State Department approves sale of F-16 training, support services for Ukraine

The equipment and services include aircraft modifications and upgrades as well as personnel training related to operation, maintenance, and sustainment support.

kyivindependent.com

BREAKING: The U.S. State Department approves a $310 million F-16 training and support package for Ukraine. The F-16 will form the backbone of the Ukrainian Air Force for many years to come

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1918410461491732858

 

[Tidewater]

US State Department approves sale of F-16 training, support services for Ukraine

The equipment and services include aircraft modifications and upgrades as well as personnel training related to operation, maintenance, and sustainment support.

kyivindependent.com

BREAKING: The U.S. State Department approves a $310 million F-16 training and support package for Ukraine. The F-16 will form the backbone of the Ukrainian Air Force for many years to come

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1918410461491732858

I know a lot has to happen between now and when this gets implemented, but having airpower on your side is really important,* and this might be a step in that direction.


* Ask the Western Allies in 1944 or the Israelis in 1967 or 1973. It is much much better to have air superiority than not.