Russia Invades Ukraine XVIII

[Its On A Slab]

And right on cue:

Putin will "avenge" the Ukrainian drone strikes.

We probably won't know the difference from his revenge and the past missiles sent into apt bldgs, schools, hospitals, shopping malls.

I guess when you are a dictator, having any sense of self-awareness isn't required.

 

[Tidewater]

We probably won't know the difference from his revenge and the past missiles sent into apt bldgs, schools, hospitals, shopping malls.

I guess when you are a dictator, having any sense of self-awareness isn't required.

True.
If you are bombing civilians at __ rate, do you expect your targetted country to notice when you ramp up civliian bombings to __ x 2?

 

[Padreruf]

True.
If you are bombing civilians at __ rate, do you expect your targetted country to notice when you ramp up civliian bombings to __ x 2?

IMHO, Putin does not care if he bombs them back to the "Stone Age." I would hope that the Ukraine would have a pre-conceived response to Russia's response to their bombing. What that would look like I have no idea...unless they already have more drones in place in Russia.

 

[Tidewater]

IMHO, Putin does not care if he bombs them back to the "Stone Age." I would hope that the Ukraine would have a pre-conceived response to Russia's response to their bombing. What that would look like I have no idea...unless they already have more drones in place in Russia.

I would bet the Ukrainians have already gotten the next round of drones into Russia.
And I bet the FSB is frantically searching the country for Ukrainian drones.
The great thing about operating inside Russia is that everyone can be purchased and all you need to do is to purchase one FSB agent, and then hide your stuff in his area. (or hide your stuff and then bribe the FSB agent responsible for search that area).

 

[Huckleberry]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1930736678039146966

Massive explosion at the Bryansk Airport in Russia as Ukraine again strikes military targets in Russia

 

[crimsonaudio]

BREAKING:

Ukrainian drones are attacking targets in Moscow.

The city’s airports Domodedovo and Vnukovo have ceased operations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1931604412251656464

 

[Tidewater]

BREAKING:

Ukrainian drones are attacking targets in Moscow.

The city’s airports Domodedovo and Vnukovo have ceased operations.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1931604412251656464

Those look like the axes of advance of the XLVII Panzer Corps in 1941.

 

[Padreruf]

You were correct TW -- the response to the response was ready....

 

[Tidewater]

You were correct TW -- the response to the response was ready....

Well, I'm pretty sure the Kremlin kept in reserve a number of missiles for exactly this contingency.
And as for what Russia would target, of course they will select targets for maximum civilian casualties. It's their way.

 

[Padreruf]

Well, I'm pretty sure the Kremlin kept in reserve a number of missiles for exactly this contingency.
And as for what Russia would target, of course they will select targets for maximum civilian casualties. It's their way.

I'm not that old -- 74 -- but I cannot remember when Russia was not a major problem for the world. Even in WWII, from what I have read (history major) though they did wear out Germany in Germany's invasion of Russia, they were still not trusted by the Allied powers -- and with good reason as it turned out. Their respect for human life is only just below that of Japan and China -- and the worst among countries that supposedly have a "Christian" base.

 

[Tidewater]

I'm not that old -- 74 -- but I cannot remember when Russia was not a major problem for the world. Even in WWII, from what I have read (history major) though they did wear out Germany in Germany's invasion of Russia, they were still not trusted by the Allied powers -- and with good reason as it turned out. Their respect for human life is only just below that of Japan and China -- and the worst among countries that supposedly have a "Christian" base.

There are a number of reasons for this, historical and cultural. Culturally, they stand astride both Europe and Asia, although the dominant culture (Great Russian/Moscovite) is decidedly European.
Historically, they have been invaded and conquered a number of times, including from Asia, the so-called
"Mongol yoke." Having no defensible borders, they have been invaded and conquered by Vikings, Tatars, Germans, Swedes, Poles, the French, Brits and French (again), Germans (again), and Germans (again). In most of those invasions, the conquerors have behaved horribly.
This inclines Russians to fear being invaded and conquered, and since many of the successful conquests have involved a fractured Russian polity, to despise dissension and tolerate a strong man, even an abusive strong man.
This statue was recently erected in the Moscow metro:

 

[Tidewater]

General Mikhail Skobelev said in 1881, "the duration of the peace is in direct proportion to the slaughter you inflict upon the enemy. The harder you hit them, the longer they remain quiet."
Long-term Russian tradition.

 

[JDCrimson]

Werent the Russians' ancestors essentially Gypsies? Hypothetically, if Russia fell what would happen?

There are a number of reasons for this, historical and cultural. Culturally, they stand astride both Europe and Asia, although the dominant culture (Great Russian/Moscovite) is decidedly European.
Historically, they have been invaded and conquered a number of times, including from Asia, the so-called
"Mongol yoke." Having no defensible borders, they have been invaded and conquered by Vikings, Tatars, Germans, Swedes, Poles, the French, Brits and French (again), Germans (again), and Germans (again). In most of those invasions, the conquerors have behaved horribly.
This inclines Russians to fear being invaded and conquered, and since many of the successful conquests have involved a fractured Russian polity, to despise dissension and tolerate a strong man, even an abusive strong man.
This statue was recently erected in the Moscow metro:
View attachment 51131

 

[Tidewater]

Werent the Russians' ancestors essentially Gypsies? Hypothetically, if Russia fell what would happen?

I do not think so. The Russians were part of the slavs who came out of the Pripet marshes.
If Russia collapsed (depending on what you mean by "collapse" but say Putin dies and a protracted struggle ensues as his minions struggle to seize control, but if no one should come to the fore, then ...), a couple of things would happen, I would guess that regional warlords would spring up around the Russian Federation. China would grab a bunch of Siberia, either de facto or de jure.
Chechnya would secede from the Federation, and if they were allowed to secede, other member republics as well, starting in the Caucasus, but spreading northward and eastwards.

The nukes would fall to whoever controls the silos and might be used by them as they struggle for ascendancy. In the end, I think a truncated Russia would emerge, one without the area east of the Urals which would become China or rule by China's puppets.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Werent the Russians' ancestors essentially Gypsies? Hypothetically, if Russia fell what would happen?

I'm not sure what you mean by "Gypsies." If you mean the Indic Roma people, then "no." If you mean "migratory," then "yes." That is the story of Europe, stretching back to prehistory. All that's certain is the Slavs came from the east, like the overwhelming majority of modern European populations. They look to their nationhood as having come from the Kievan Rus, the Rus ironically being Swedish Vikings. That's part of the underlayment of the bitterness of today's war. But, to get back to your question, western European Russia would form a Muscovite state. Kamchatka also, at least until China took it back over, a question of time, IMO. In between, the vast sweep of Siberia, European Russians are in the minority. There, mini-states would spring up along ancient tribal lines, with a lot of civil war where overlaps occurred between tribes. It would be a mosaic and would be years, if not generations, shaking itself out to any semblance of stability...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I do not think so. The Russians were part of the slavs who came out of the Pripet marshes.
If Russia collapsed (depending on what you mean by "collapse" but say Putin dies and a protracted struggle ensues as his minions struggle to seize control, but if no one should come to the fore, then ...), a couple of things would happen, I would guess that regional warlords would spring up around the Russian Federation. China would grab a bunch of Siberia, either de facto or de jure.
Chechnya would secede from the Federation, and if they were allowed to secede, other member republics as well, starting in the Caucasus, but spreading northward and eastwards.
View attachment 51132
The nukes would fall to whoever controls the silos and might be used by them as they struggle for ascendancy. In the end, I think a truncated Russia would emerge, one without the area east of the Urals which would become China or rule by China's puppets.

It could break that way. That assumes continued Chinese hegemony, which depends again up on how the Chinese demographic timebomb develops. Still, they are the dominant power and they would be pushing against a vacuum...

 

[JDCrimson]

I meant migratory. I thought the Slavs were sort of a nomadic people very clanish prone to hate each other.

I'm not sure what you mean by "Gypsies." If you mean the Indic Roma people, then "no." If you mean "migratory," then "yes." That is the story of Europe, stretching back to prehistory. All that's certain is the Slavs came from the east, like the overwhelming majority of modern European populations. They look to their nationhood as having come from the Kievan Rus, the Rus ironically being Swedish Vikings. That's part of the underlayment of the bitterness of today's war. But, to get back to your question, western European Russia would form a Muscovite state. Kamchatka also, at least until China took it back over, a question of time, IMO. In between, the vast sweep of Siberia, European Russians are in the minority. There, mini-states would spring up along ancient tribal lines, with a lot of civil war where overlaps occurred between tribes. It would be a mosaic and would be years, if not generations, shaking itself out to any semblance of stability...

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I meant migratory. I thought the Slavs were sort of a nomadic people very clanish prone to hate each other.

IDK that you can that's any more true of them than of most other peoples...

 

[Tidewater]

IDK that you can that's any more true of them than of most other peoples...

There were successive waves of people moving around Eurasia. A lot of them coming out of Central Asia, it seems. Celts, Goths, Vandals, Huns, Avars, Slavs, Franks, Lombards. Once the Roman cork was out of the bottle, they seem to have headed to Western Europe.

 

[Tidewater]

It could break that way. That assumes continued Chinese hegemony, which depends again up on how the Chinese demographic timebomb develops. Still, they are the dominant power and they would be pushing against a vacuum...

True. It depends on where the Chinese are in their demographic collapse when the Russian collapse happens.
I was shocked when I saw the CCPs map of eastern Siberia, and how much of it China claimed was stolen from them during the Century of Humiliation.