Potential final ranking prognostication

[mfleck]

My worst fear is we lose the sec championship game and get left out, which should not happen since last year they let SMU in over us after they lost to Clemson. We really need ole miss or Oklahoma to lose and ohio state not to get upset by Michigan.

 

[colbysullivan]

My guess would be since the % chance of making the SECCG went up, so did the chance of picking up a 3rd loss by losing that game.

Also nobody around us choked so the chance of other teams around us losing went down.

College football is wild man…

“Hey you’re a virtual lock for the playoffs….oh you WON this past weekend? Yeah, sorry 50/50 now…”

It’s crazy to think earning a spot in the conference championship game of the toughest conference in college football LOWERS your odds to make the playoffs.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Game Control

Thanks!

So is 5 better than 10, or vice-versa?

 

[Cruloc]

That's what I got when I said we beat Auburn and win the SECCG. Had us at #7. I find that.....interesting. We did jump Notre Dame and Ole Miss......but this thing is completely out of whack because it doesn't have ATM in there.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

My worst fear is we lose the sec championship game and get left out, which should not happen since last year they let SMU in over us after they lost to Clemson. We really need ole miss or Oklahoma to lose and ohio state not to get upset by Michigan.

We are in a pickle.

There is not a single team in the Top 15 with 3 losses right now.

Plus who ever the Highest ranked G5 team will be is below that.

Imo we have to finish 11-2 SEC Champs to get into the CFBP

There are just way too many potential 10-2 or Better candidates around us for them to put us in at 10-3 at large with a Loss to FSU team that’s not even bowl eligible.

There would have to be massive chaos to create a situation where they would be picking us from a pool of 9-3 teams or a couple 10-2 teams with really weak resumes.

It wouldn’t even cause the stir people would hope it would by leaving us out at 10-3.

That doesn’t hurt the SEC it hurts Alabama.

UGA, OM, A&M, and OU would all probably make it in with records ranging from 10-2 to 12-1

Why would the SEC throw a hissy fit when they get up to 4 teams in anyway?

Just expecting a 10-3 Bama team to be taken with the way things look now is straight hopium.

We better finish 11-2 and make it an iron clad deal.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

My worst fear is we lose the sec championship game and get left out, which should not happen since last year they let SMU in over us after they lost to Clemson. We really need ole miss or Oklahoma to lose and ohio state not to get upset by Michigan.

I'm worried about us getting to Atlanta at the moment...

 

[Cruloc]

When I put in that we beat Auburn, then lose the SECCG....we apparently have a 59% chance of making the playoff......as a 9 seed, playing BYU.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

View attachment 54424


That's what I got when I said we beat Auburn and win the SECCG. Had us at #7. I find that.....interesting. We did jump Notre Dame and Ole Miss......but this thing is completely out of whack because it doesn't have ATM in there.

Yeah something is off there because no way two G5 teams are in an A&M drops out.

A&M is in at either 11-1 or 12-1

 

[Titans&Tide]

I'm worried about us getting to Atlanta at the moment...

Yep. All this speculation is a moot point if we drop the game at the Voodoo Palace this weekend.

 

[Cruloc]

This predictor is pretty consistent.

If we win the SECCG it has us at #7......repeatedly. 100% chance of making playoff
If we lose the SECCG it has us at #9.....repeatedly. 59% chance of making playoff

It is also consistent on the opponent. 7-10 matchup is Miami......8-9 matchup seems to be BYU consistently.

 

[Cruloc]

Yeah something is off there because no way two G5 teams are in an A&M drops out.

A&M is in at either 11-1 or 12-1

Indeed. And when I enter ATM beating Texas and losing the SECCG.....it still has them as a #2 seed.

ATM losing to Texas, not making the SECCG....they become a 5 seed.

 

[BhamToTexas]

Thanks!

So is 5 better than 10, or vice-versa?

Yes 5 is better than 10.

 

[Snuffy Smith]

Not sure how the predictor would put us at 7 & TAMU at 5 if we beat them in the CG. Guess the predictor just tries to pick up on the randomness of the committee ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[TideEngineer08]

Not sure how the predictor would put us at 7 & TAMU at 5 if we beat them in the CG. Guess the predictor just tries to pick up on the randomness of the committee ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

They would have one less loss, plus their rushing stats are better than ours.

 

[Snuffy Smith]

View attachment 54424


That's what I got when I said we beat Auburn and win the SECCG. Had us at #7. I find that.....interesting. We did jump Notre Dame and Ole Miss......but this thing is completely out of whack because it doesn't have ATM in there.

yeah like I said earlier - bunch of guys throwing dice in a back alley...

So I put in Aggies to beat Tejas and lose the SEC CG and they show up as a 2 seed and us at 8, so it has to assume that we beat the Barn and then beat the Aggies?

 

[Snuffy Smith]

I like the outcome when I play the game as Oklahoma! I feel like a high school math teacher here because I really want to challenge them to show their work and see the outcomes they are assuming on the games that got them to this predicted field.

 

[TideEngineer08]

The Sun Belt, American, MAC, and MWC conferences should not even be considered for this tournament. THAT's the real issue. Not Notre Dame. Not the ACC.

Neither James Madison nor North Texas belong anywhere near this field. The G5/4 needs its own playoff.